Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030? | Manifold

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

82

1kṀ8326

2029

39%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves "yes" if any of the six remaining Millenium Prize Problems are solved before Jan. 1, 2030, and the solution is accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute.

Millennium Prize Problems

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https://www.ft.com/content/72d2c2b1-493b-4520-ae10-41c1a7f3b7e4

@MalachiteEagle Going from "they will solve some important conjectures" to "they will solve a millenium prize problem" is peak availability heuristic

Interesting that the probability of this has gone up lately. Maybe people think the room-temperature superconductor will help solve the Millennium problems.

Why'd everyone bet this so far down without also betting on the identical market in the comments? There's an easy dutch book now.

predictedNO

Dutch book opportunity:

This is the AI's interpretation of what a Millennium Prize looks like:

Millenium Prize

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