If humanity is still around to watch and debate the results of Manifold markets leagues for season 2: June, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.
1,000
3.00JIC Season 2 of Manifold Leagues is expected to be finalized sometime during July 1st, 2023.
@firstuserhere How do you plan to resolve this market if Season 2 of Manifold Leagues gets cancelled?
@MayMeta irrelevant, there can always be a discussion about the cancellation and if humanity is here for it should resolve NO immediately
@deagol to clarify, a discussion, debate or watching of results does NOT need to happen for this to resolve NO, just that humanity is still around for it.
@deagol my point was that there's a far greater chance for the Manifold team to change something about the Season 2 of Leagues, than for Ai to wipe out humanity in the following 4 weeks. For example, Manifold team might decide that other features are more important rn, and Leagues Season 2 should be postponed to 2024. Then, the question becomes "Will AI wipe out humanity before [sometime 2024]", which raises my subjective probability.
I'm also interested in the pragmatic question of when should I expect to get my mana back, assuming that we survive 2023.
@MayMeta ah ok gotcha. we may have to update our 2030 extinction models then with this short term rate increase? 🤔
@deagol Why would we have to, those markets are don’t change based on anything leagues/manifold related
@ShadowyZephyr but there might be arb going on pressuring the 2024 market, and that pressures the following year, and so on to 2100? I think it may be psychological, market dynamics, one of those for sure.