Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
49
2.2kṀ67692030
1%
In 2024, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
22%
In 2025, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
38%
In 2026, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
57%
In 2027, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
63%
In 2028, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
Resolved
NOIn 2023, AI be as big a political issue as abortion
Will resolve at the end of each year according to Scott's original resolution:
I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.
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@geometry dash wave Will decide in accordance with Scott's first resolution at the conclusion of every year
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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