By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?
14
50
Ṁ212Ṁ290
2025
53%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Revealed - it was not known prior to the post getting famous, by most readers of the post, that it was written by an AI. They may have suspected so, but it was not told to them.
Only posts put on LW after the start of this market contract will be eligible candidates
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
https://www.lesswrong.com/allPosts?sortedBy=top&timeframe=allTime to get an estimate for how many upvotes are common on LW
Related questions
Will "Predictable updating about AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
59% chance
Will "OpenAI: Facts from a Weekend" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "AI Alignment Metastrategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "Current AIs Provide Nearly No Data Relevant t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "AI #8: People Can Do Reasonable Things" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
7% chance
Will "LeCun’s “A Path Towards Autonomous Machine In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "How it feels to have your mind hacked by an AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
34% chance
Will "Speaking to Congressional staffers about AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
25% chance
Will "Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
23% chance
Will "AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentio..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
83% chance