Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?
Plus
38
Ṁ21922029
77%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Will the percentage of top graduates in maths and CS at elite university who aspire to work in AI safety rise or fall? I'd bet on fall!" https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872
Resolves to YES if number go up.
Resolves to NO if number go down.
Resolves to best probability estimate, taking into account market price, if the number is sufficiently hard to measure that we can't tell.
I will not be doing the work to figure out the before or after numbers, but people are welcome to comment with statistics. Nor will I define 'top' or 'elite' here for now. Not going to let the perfect be the enemy of having a market. As usual, if the action goes big, will consider tightening up wording.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
28% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
59% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
32% chance
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
24% chance
Will an AI score over 10% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
79% chance
By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?
20% chance
Will at least 15 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
41% chance
Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
77% chance
Will at least 25 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
65% chance