Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?
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Resolves to YES if Microsoft successfully builds and puts into operation a nuclear power plant built for the purpose of powering one of its data centers, or someone else builds and puts into operation such a nuclear power plant for such a purpose.

Resolves to NO if OpenAI announces it is withholding one or more products from Microsoft's deal due to the AGI exception clause in their contract, or otherwise announces that they have achieved AGI.

Resolves N/A if neither occurs by the deadline, or it is clear neither will occur by then, as an escape valve.

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@causal_agency Do you think NuScale cancelling their Idaho small modular reactors project after the Microsoft interview due to costs affects the feasibility of MS using it as a technology?

"The only company to have a small modular nuclear power plant approved in the US – cited by the Australian opposition as evidence of a “burgeoning” global nuclear industry – has cancelled its first project due to rising costs."

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/09/small-modular-nuclear-reactor-that-was-hailed-by-coalition-as-future-cancelled-due-to-rising-costs

Fascinating! Minor/meta question: I'm curious about the escape valve you mention at the end. Don't mana loans make that unnecessary?

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