Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040?
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2040
19%
chance

Resolves yes if OpenAI has a valuation (from a funding round etc.) or market cap greater than Microsoft at any point before Jan. 1st 2040.

If the corporate structure of either company changes, the question will not necessarily resolve to No. I will lean towards counting any new structures the same as the old ones if they broadly contain similar AI assets/capabilities.

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This is basically impossible because no matter how big OpenAI gets, 49% is essentially Microsoft and they have nothing that Microsoft doesn’t own 49 percent. Microsoft has its own $3B business sans OpenAI. So to put this in perspective the 49 percent of OpenAI owned by Microsoft is only 1% of their total market cap! LOL! Satya Nadela is actually the smartest guy in the room when he visits Sam and co.

given microsoft owns 49% of openai, would this mean openai would need to be at least 2x more valuable than the rest of msft (a > 1/2a + b)

@anonymous Not sure what the deal is, but apparently not any ownership stake. My guess is 49% profit sharing but that only applies pre-AGI for whatever that’s worth

https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-says-it-does-not-own-any-portion-openai-2023-12-08/#:~:text=%22While%20details%20of%20our%20agreement,said%20company%20spokesman%20Frank%20Shaw.

@anonymous Also, max profit allocated to investors is capped. I agree this changes the probabilities and I didn’t think about it before making the question but happy to leave the question as-is.

https://openai.com/our-structure

@anonymous Right and currently OpenAI is worth TWO PERCENT the total market cap of MSFT.

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