The White House based its decision to sell H200s based largely on a prediction that Huawei would be able to produce 'a few million' such chips in 2026. Semianalysis previously estimated that they would be able to ship only a few hundred thousand chips.

Resolves to YES if, as per my best judgment, Huawei has shipped at least 1 million Huawei 910C chips, including any new Huawei chips that are widely considered superior to the 910C.

Resolves to NO if, as per my best judgment, Huawei fails to do this.

If it is unclear whether this happened I may extend the market for up to 3 months, after which I will resolve as best I can.

If Semianalysis confidently reports that this did or did not happen, that will by default be considered sufficient to constitute my best judgment, and if they affirm in advance they will judge this when the time comes then I will agree to defer to them.

[If I find another good judge I will edit conditions to reflect this, ideally we identify someone we can all trust and go with them.]