Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?
2
1kṀ85
2027
46%
chance

This market resolves YES if a commercially available CPU implementing full CHERI capability-based memory protection ships at least 10,000 units to customers by December 31, 2026.

Resolution Criteria:

  • CPU must be capable of running a general-purpose OS (e.g., Linux, FreeBSD, or Windows).

  • CHERI support means hardware-enforced capabilities per the CHERI architecture developed by the University of Cambridge.

  • “Shipped” means physically delivered to customers or integrators (not just manufactured or pre-ordered).

  • Units shipped can be documented via press releases, credible news sources, financial filings, or direct statements from vendors.

Development boards (e.g., Arm Morello) only count if publicly sold in quantity and meet the above criteria. This market will resolve NO if no qualifying shipment is confirmed by the deadline.

Technology
Business
Cybersecurity
CPUs
CHERI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Cerebras get more than 100% year-to-year growth between 2024 and 2025?
45% chance
What instruction set architecture will have the plurality of desktop CPU sales in 2034?
Will ARM-powered PCs make up 30% of the PC market by 2026?
43% chance
Will Jetson deliver >500 units by 2025
13% chance
Will a AI-first "pin" product sell more than 100,000 units by the end of 2025?
17% chance
Will any of CPUs/GPU created by hackerfab generate at least 10^18 operations of compute by EOY2028?
38% chance
[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
92% chance
Will there be an announcement of a model with a training compute of over 1e30 FLOPs by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?
10% chance
Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?
4% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy