Will AI cause a market crash (2024)?
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Gary Gensler thinks it may. Tyler Cowen thinks not.

Resolves according to Tyler Cowen's judgment if and when a market crash occurs.

  • Resolves YES if a crash occurs and Tyler Cowen says it is at least likely and largely attributable to AI, or some nearby version of that proposition.

  • If Tyler Cowen agrees a crash occurred but is uncertain about its causes, I will resolve to a probability based on Cowen's credence at the time.

  • If Cowen won't provide a credence, I will resolve to 50%.

  • If no crash occurs by the end of 2024 or one occurs but it is unambiguously not attributable to AI, this resolves NO.

I will not trade in this market.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/10/will-ai-cause-a-market-crash.html

Related but with different timeline and resolution criteria. While Zvi's operationalization of 'financial crash' is helpful as a heuristic, note that I will defer to Cowen's judgment. If Cowen describes a financial markets event as 'crash' on Marginal Revolution or elsewhere, this will make the event a candidate for resolution.

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Just added some subsidy (may add more later if there's interest in this market).

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