Resolves YES the first executive order of Trump's second term is primarily about immigration and/or border security, NO if it is not primarily about either topic, and N/A if he has not signed any executive orders by April 29th (i.e. first 100 days).
Context
The first executive order of Trump's first term was #13765, a.k.a. "Executive Order Minimizing the Economic Burden of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Pending Repeal". An equivalent market would have resolved NO.
From his first term, the first executive order that would have resolved an equivalent market YES was his 3rd, #13767, "Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements".
For more examples, his 4th & 5th executive orders in 2016 would also have resolved this YES.
Regardless, there will naturally be some subjectivity in resolution. I intend to be fairly broad, but it needs to be primarily about immigration and/or border security, not just indirectly influence on these topics.
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@traders It looks like the official source has been updated.
I think the sweeps markets resolved based on the chronological order of announcement, but it looks like in terms of absolute numbering, the first executive order would actually be "EO 14147: Ending the Weaponization of the Federal Government". Luckily, the resolution is still NO (this has little to do with immigration/the border).
(Manifold already resolved the sweeps market which is separate, this only refers to the mana market). i assume this will be NO as the first executive order is about repealing biden's many orders but I'd rather wait to resolve until I can get a super clear/official source for the actual numbering of the orders
From my calculations, 8% of the withdrawn executive orders were about the immigration border, certainly not the primary topic. This should resolve NO.
This looks like the first executive order signed - repealing dozens of previous executive orders by the Biden administration. This to me does not seem to meet the yes resolution definition of being "primarily" about the border.
@gamedev yup skimming @Gabrielle 's analysis this looks like a clear-ish NO but I will likely wait a few days to resolve to make sure it settles that this was clearly the first executive order & there's no ambiguity there
I'm assuming however that the first one will be J6 related based on the developments this morning.
To bet on the exact topic, see @Gabrielle 's more detailed market: