Resolves YES the first executive order of Trump's second term is primarily about immigration and/or border security, NO if it is not primarily about either topic, and N/A if he has not signed any executive orders by April 29th (i.e. first 100 days).
Context
The first executive order of Trump's first term was #13765, a.k.a. "Executive Order Minimizing the Economic Burden of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Pending Repeal". An equivalent market would have resolved NO.
From his first term, the first executive order that would have resolved an equivalent market YES was his 3rd, #13767, "Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements".
For more examples, his 4th & 5th executive orders in 2016 would also have resolved this YES.
Regardless, there will naturally be some subjectivity in resolution. I intend to be fairly broad, but it needs to be primarily about immigration and/or border security, not just indirectly influence on these topics.
1,000
3.00From my calculations, 8% of the withdrawn executive orders were about the immigration border, certainly not the primary topic. This should resolve NO.
This looks like the first executive order signed - repealing dozens of previous executive orders by the Biden administration. This to me does not seem to meet the yes resolution definition of being "primarily" about the border.
@gamedev yup skimming @Gabrielle 's analysis this looks like a clear-ish NO but I will likely wait a few days to resolve to make sure it settles that this was clearly the first executive order & there's no ambiguity there
I'm assuming however that the first one will be J6 related based on the developments this morning.
To bet on the exact topic, see @Gabrielle 's more detailed market: