Will the total domestic box office for 2024 be higher than $8.4 billion?
2
49
70
2025
36%
chance

Source: I will resolve this based on the "Domestic Theatrical Market Summary for 2024" from The Numbers: https://www.the-numbers.com/market/2024/summary

  • For reference, 2023 page lists $8,946,159,192 for the total cumulative gross of 2023. That is the equivalent number that I will use.

  • I will check the 2024 page on January 7th (2025), and will resolve the market based on the number that's listed when I look. [1]

  • If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask.

[1] It's possible The Numbers won't precisely agree with other sources (e.g. I saw some articles claim the 2023 box office passed $9 billion). I will use The Numbers to avoid any ambiguity. If needed, I can wait until Jan 7 to resolve the market (so there's time for reporting to come in). If a changed outcome is mathematically impossible, I may resolve the market early.

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It’s gonna be a weak year for movies, but I say this annually around this time

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