Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
Basic
175
47k
resolved Jul 7
Resolved
YES
"Look"
Resolved
YES
"Cold"
Resolved
YES
"Trump"
Resolved
YES
"Liar"
Resolved
YES
“Supreme Court”
Resolved
YES
The Fact of the matter is
Resolved
YES
"Immunity"
Resolved
NO
"Donald"
Resolved
NO
"Knocked down"
Resolved
NO
“The fact is”
Resolved
NO
"Kamala" OR "Harris"
Resolved
NO
"Clearly as I can"
Resolved
NO
"Convicted felon"
Resolved
NO
"That’s why"
Resolved
NO
“The idea that”
Resolved
NO
"Jill"
Resolved
NO
"Drop out"
Resolved
NO
"Old"
Resolved
NO
"Above the law"
Resolved
NO
"The American people"

These options resolve YES if Joe Biden says the exact sequence of words during his upcoming ABC interview with George Stephanopoulos. This follows the same rules as the debate market.

  • This market will close before the interview is released.

  • If the interview has not been released by July 15th, all options N/A.

  • It resolves based on the interview that we're shown—even if we find out some parts have been edited out, it only resolves if it's in the published part.

  • You can add your own responses, but note (1) I intend to be very strict with resolution (following the rules below), & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.

Resolution examples:

  • It needs to be the exact same words (in order): "shut the hell up" does not count for "shut up".

  • This includes verb tenses and pluralization: "We defended democracy" does not count for "defend democracy", and "convicted felons" does not count for "convicted felon".

  • However, any punctuation is fine: "Come on! Man, I..." counts for "come on, man", and "Folks. Folks, I..." counts for "folks, folks". What matters is that the words are said in sequence.

  • Similarly, any form of contraction counts: "c'mon, man" would count for "come on, man", and "here is the deal" would count for "here's the deal".

  • Broadly, different forms of writing the same word will count: "January sixth" counts for "January 6th".

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@traders All others resolve NO. These markets are fun, but I'll hold off on the next one until there's another similarly high profile event.

In the meantime, why don't you spin away from Biden's clumsy mental gymnastics, and bet on the 2024 USA women's artistic gymnastics Olympic team instead???

/Ziddletwix/how-many-medals-will-simone-biles-w

/Ziddletwix/how-many-gold-medals-will-the-us-wo

And check out the dashboard for more Olympic gymnastics markets!

“The fact is”

@StephenSPower so close, he said "the fact of the matter is"

@traders I went through the transcript, and resolved YES everything that I found. Currently, I plan to resolve everything else NO. I'll wait a day to resolve these all NO, to give time for people to flag anything that I might have missed.

looks accurate so far 🫡 thank you

Your honour i SWEAR he said skibidi

Your honour, that's cap.

A similar market with live trading!

Saw a clip of the interview, and Biden said yeah, “Look”…. So “look” can be resolved yes! I made the trade before the interview clip leaked.

bought Ṁ100 The Fact of the matt... YES

probably wanna close it now since the interview segment leaked... can pepper this market with dozens of phrases now

opened a Ṁ270 "Cold" YES at 67% order

real

Sure, closed! Got a leak to the segment that's out?

FWIW, there isn't really that much harm in people peppering the market with certain phrases—they have to put up the liquidity to add it, not a huge deal. If stuff leaked, that's a big RIP for my NO limit orders, but that's sometime just how it goes.

just 2 minute clip that was announced beforehand dropped at 6:30 est

Yeah I think this can be open, just probably shouldn't accept new submissions

Yeah I think this can be open, just probably shouldn't accept new submissions

It can but the intent was always to close it before the interview aired—mana ain't free! which is totally fine, it was always likely they'd preview some clips in advance (so people can get the free mana on a few of these, but I'll close it now to preserve the rest, in case more clips come out).

I mean the actual interview is in <1 hr anyways right, doesn't matter much. (original close time was much earlier, to avoid those preview clips, but this market was super active so i wanted to let it run a bit closer)

"Look"

@AliciaGrugett0537 Slightly edited this one to just be "Look", because under the rules I'm not doing punctuation so I'm assuming this is intended as just the word (don't want people to be confused). I don't want to rule what constitutes an exclamation mark in speech.

No worries.

@traders IIUC, the interview will now air Friday at 8pm ET, so I'll adjust the close time to allow trading for longer. (Some early preview clips might be shown, & people can news trade on that, but w/e).

This was a quick/last minute market, so it's got low liquidity, but these probabilities are mostly too high IMO so I've got NO limit orders at (or near) market price for ~most of these. LMK if you want more.

I'll wait to resolve until after the full transcript is available & I have time, which might take a day or two.

Ziddletwix How about

Kitchen table

And

Finish the job

You can add them!

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