Resolution
These options resolve YES if Joe Biden says the exact sequence of words at the first debate.
It needs to be the exact same words (in order): "shut the hell up" does not count for "shut up".
This includes verb tenses and pluralization: "We defended democracy" does not count for "defend democracy", and "convicted felons" does not count for "convicted felon".
However, any punctuation is fine: "Come on! Man, I..." counts for "come on, man", and "Folks. Folks, I..." counts for "folks, folks". What matters is that the words are said in sequence.
Similarly, any form of contraction counts: "c'mon, man" would count for "come on, man", and "here is the deal" would count for "here's the deal".
Broadly, different forms of writing the same word will count: "January sixth" counts for "January 6th".
To help find these, I plan to check the transcript from the CPD website. But the transcript won't necessarily be the ultimate source (e.g. it might slightly diverge in spelling, punctuation, usage of contractions, etc)—as long as it sounds like he said the phrase in the debate audio (and not some other word), I will err on the side of YES.
Background
This market refers to the first debate held between Biden & Trump in 2024, as long as it is before July 31st (currently: June 27th, on CNN).
If the debate is cancelled or postponed beyond then, I will ask the mods to N/A this market, as I don't want to lock up mana for the next 5 months.
This market will close before the first debate begins (to recoup liquidity).
You can add your own submissions, but note that it costs 1000M (this is a Plus market), and I reserve the right to N/A any that don't follow the current format (or for any reason).
Submissions don't need to explicitly be "Biden-isms"—e.g. you can add "NATO" or "Artificial intelligence" if you want to bet that he'll mention them. It just needs to be a sequence of words.
For more general betting on "what will happen in the debate", check out @ManifoldPolitics 's official prop bet market.
1,000
1.00@traders Bet on Biden's post dropout address to the nation!
Made a quick mini version for the upcoming interview: /Ziddletwix/which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
@traders The CNN transcript is up (plus the video to confirm). I resolved every YES that I could find. Currently, I plan to resolve all other remaining options NO, unless I hear otherwise. Please take a look, and LMK if I missed anything. I'll wait a bit before resolution so people have time to flag anything I might have missed.
(People—including me!—were SO certain he'd say "folks", but he only said it exactly once—almost resolved NO!).
@traders With no complaints raised, I resolved this rest NO. LMK if you think any are in error. Thanks for betting!
@Ziddletwix
> I come of householdth… where the kitchen table thuh… things weren't able to be met during the month it was a problem
https://youtu.be/XxAU0K94fpw?t=14700
@traders @ManifoldPolitics has generously bought out the liquidity in this market, and thus now it will be left open for LIVE TRADING (closing immediately after the debate). Have fun.
Please, bear in mind that the criteria here are strict. Just because you think you hear Biden say something that sounds a bit like one of these options, please do not bet it up to 99% (unless you're certain about the exact words). I'll use the transcript/recording to confirm later what exactly is said.
I made a related market: Will Biden say the word "Folks" more than 4 times?