How much will "Dune: Part Two" (2024) gross domestically during its first two months of release?
How much will "Dune: Part Two" (2024) gross domestically during its first two months of release?
14
665Ṁ19k
resolved May 3
Resolved
YES
Over $120 million
Resolved
YES
Over $160 million
Resolved
YES
Over $200 million
Resolved
YES
Over $240 million
Resolved
YES
Over $280 million
Resolved
YES
Over $270 million
Resolved
YES
Over $275 million
Resolved
NO
Over $320 million
Resolved
NO
Over $290 million

"Dune: Part Two" (2024) opens on March 1st. These markets will resolve based on the cumulative domestic (not worldwide) total listed by BoxOfficeMojo up through May 1st https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/.

  • For comparison, the original "Dune" (2021) released on October 21st, and BoxOfficeMojo lists $106,985,276 as its cumulative domestic gross through December 21st (2021). That is, the "Domestic Daily" tab, the "To Date" column, and the "December 21st" row. This is the comparable number that I will use for "Dune: Part Two". [1]

  • These markets are independent—any number of them can resolve YES.

  • Once the listed domestic box office passes a relevant threshold, I can resolve that market early (feel free to tag me).

  • I may add additional markets (above, below, or in between)—the questions are independent, so this has no impact on the current markets.

  • If somehow "Dune: Part Two" is delayed again (which I can't imagine it will), I'll update the question to again reflect "two months after the release date".

  • If any aspects of resolution are unclear, just ask.

[1]. While the rules for resolution should be very clear from this lengthy description, note that they are slightly different than in my WW market. For WW, I don't see a clear "WW cumulative gross as of X date" number that I can check, so I will just use what's listed by BoxOfficeMojo on May 1st. For domestic, they post the daily grosses, so I will use the cumulative total up through May 1st, which will only be finalized a few days later. (E.g. domestic will include May 1st gross, WW ~probably won't, & etc). This is all explained by the question descriptions, but I want to avoid any possible confusion. Please ask if anything is unclear.

Related markets:

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ284
2Ṁ72
3Ṁ24
4Ṁ20
5Ṁ11


Sort by:
1y

@traders Final tally: $280,426,789. END OF AN ERA (i.e. Dune 2 markets). Check out markets for the domestic grosses of Inside Out 2 and Deadpool 3

Which MCU movies will "Deadpool & Wolverine" outgross domestically?

Which previous Pixar movies will "Inside Out 2" outgross during its (domestic) opening weekend

1y

@traders Added some new options to make this a little more precise! (Note that until people bet them around a bit, there's no good way to sort 'em, so be careful before you bet)

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy