Which previous Pixar movies will "Inside Out 2" outgross during its (domestic) opening weekend

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Ṁ11k

resolved Jun 18

Resolved

YES

>$39 million - The Good Dinosaur

Resolved

YES

>$50 million - Coco

Resolved

YES

>$82 million - Monsters University

Resolved

YES

>$70 million - The Incredibles

Resolved

YES

>$60 million - Cars

Resolved

YES

>$90 million - Inside Out (2015)

Resolved

YES

>$110 million - Toy Story 3

Resolved

YES

>$135 million - Finding Dory

Resolved

>$182 million - Incredibles 2

The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for "Inside Out 2" (2024) will be used to resolve these markets: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt22022452/

Details

I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (note: this is the domestic opening).
For simplicity, I rounded down the gross of previous Pixar films to the nearest million. These numbers (displayed in the current market options [1]) are what I will compare to the "Inside Out 2" gross (not the full precision available elsewhere).

Example

The "Domestic Opening" for "Minions: Rise of Gru" was $107,010,140.
With this gross:
- The [>$90 million - Inside Out (2015)] option would resolve YES.
- The [>$110 million - Toy Story 3] option would resolve NO.

[1]. Exception: Unless I made an actual mistake in copying these down, in which let me know and I will try to correct it.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Actuals are $154,201,673M.

Check out box office markets for Quiet Place & Deadpool:

/Ziddletwix/how-much-will-a-quiet-place-day-one

/Ziddletwix/which-mcu-movies-will-deadpool-wolv

(note that Quiet Place will close during Thursday previews, no live trading for that one)

Actuals are in. Estimates were almost spot on.

bought Ṁ155 YES

Of the three big summer blockbusters (Inside Out 2, Deadpool 3, Despicable Me 4), honestly Inside Out 2 was the one (as of a month ago) that deep down I was a bit suspicious of (thought it might be a medium ~$85M or so, until I saw that the tracking was nuts). Crazy weekend!

bought Ṁ154 YES

It got $62 million on its first day, so the ones below that can resolve.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Obvs it’s a lock that inside out 2 will smash most of these, but the 62M Friday is still technically just an estimate (hence the round number in the millions), and usually I wait to resolve until the actuals are posted (which happens all at once for the whole weekend).

Adjusted for inflation?

@Shrewdan Nope. The previous films are just included for bonus context—all that matters is the ">$60 million".

(and box office #s are generally not adjusted for inflation, unless otherwise specified).

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