Which previous Pixar movies will "Inside Out 2" outgross during its (domestic) opening weekend
Basic
29
11k
resolved Jun 18
Resolved
YES
>$39 million - The Good Dinosaur
Resolved
YES
>$50 million - Coco
Resolved
YES
>$82 million - Monsters University
Resolved
YES
>$70 million - The Incredibles
Resolved
YES
>$60 million - Cars
Resolved
YES
>$90 million - Inside Out (2015)
Resolved
YES
>$110 million - Toy Story 3
Resolved
YES
>$135 million - Finding Dory
Resolved
NO
>$182 million - Incredibles 2

The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for "Inside Out 2" (2024) will be used to resolve these markets: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt22022452/

Details

  • I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (note: this is the domestic opening).

  • For simplicity, I rounded down the gross of previous Pixar films to the nearest million. These numbers (displayed in the current market options [1]) are what I will compare to the "Inside Out 2" gross (not the full precision available elsewhere).

Example

  • The "Domestic Opening" for "Minions: Rise of Gru" was $107,010,140.

  • With this gross:

    • The [>$90 million - Inside Out (2015)] option would resolve YES.

    • The [>$110 million - Toy Story 3] option would resolve NO.

[1]. Exception: Unless I made an actual mistake in copying these down, in which let me know and I will try to correct it.

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Actuals are $154,201,673M.

Check out box office markets for Quiet Place & Deadpool:

/Ziddletwix/how-much-will-a-quiet-place-day-one

/Ziddletwix/which-mcu-movies-will-deadpool-wolv

(note that Quiet Place will close during Thursday previews, no live trading for that one)

Actuals are in. Estimates were almost spot on.

bought Ṁ155 >$90 million - Insid... YES

Of the three big summer blockbusters (Inside Out 2, Deadpool 3, Despicable Me 4), honestly Inside Out 2 was the one (as of a month ago) that deep down I was a bit suspicious of (thought it might be a medium ~$85M or so, until I saw that the tracking was nuts). Crazy weekend!

bought Ṁ154 >$70 million - The I... YES

It got $62 million on its first day, so the ones below that can resolve.

bought Ṁ50 >$135 million - Find... YES

Obvs it’s a lock that inside out 2 will smash most of these, but the 62M Friday is still technically just an estimate (hence the round number in the millions), and usually I wait to resolve until the actuals are posted (which happens all at once for the whole weekend).

Adjusted for inflation?

@Shrewdan Nope. The previous films are just included for bonus context—all that matters is the ">$60 million".

(and box office #s are generally not adjusted for inflation, unless otherwise specified).