Which MCU movies will "Deadpool & Wolverine" outgross domestically?
Basic
27
4.8k
Oct 27
98.9%
>$206 million - Thor: The Dark World
·
4mo
96%
>$259 million - Captain America: The Winter Soldier
·
4mo
95%
>$318 million - Iron Man
·
4mo
92%
>$358 million - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
·
4mo
91%
>$411 million - Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
·
4mo
90%
>$459 million - Avengers: Age of Ultron
·
4mo
67%
>$623 million - The Avengers
·
4mo
30%
>$700 million - Black Panther
·
4mo
4%
>$804 million - Spider-Man: No Way Home
·
4mo

These markets will resolve based on the (cumulative) "DOMESTIC" gross for "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) listed by BoxOfficeMojo three months after release (i.e. October 26th): https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/

Details

  • I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined.

  • For simplicity, I rounded down the gross of previous MCU films to the nearest million. These numbers (displayed in the current market options [1]) are what I will compare to the "Deadpool & Wolverine" gross (not the full precision available elsewhere).

  • I prefer to resolve options NO once the result is mathematically certain—to formalize this, if 5x the movie's latest weekly gross (for the remaining market duration) wouldn't be enough to cross the threshold (and there are no extraneous circumstances). [2]

Example

  • The "DOMESTIC" gross for "Deadpool 2" (2018) was $324,591,735.

  • With this gross:

    • The [>$318 million - Iron Man] option would resolve YES.

    • The [>$358 million - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3] option would resolve NO.

"Deadpool & Wolverine" releases on July 26th. Its trailer (supposedly) set the record for the most viewed trailer within 24 hours.

[1]. Unless I made an obvious mistake in copying these down, in which let me know and I will try to correct it.

[2]. As this was added to the market description, if there are any complaints from earlier bettors I can of course just leave the options open for the full duration.

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@traders Let's get fancy. Two plus markets for "Deadpool & Wolverine". Plenty of liquidity here.

/Ziddletwix/how-much-will-deadpool-wolverine-20

/Ziddletwix/will-deadpool-wolverine-2024-have-a

Plus, check out the dashboard!