Which MCU movies will "Deadpool & Wolverine" outgross domestically?
Standard
35
Ṁ13k
Oct 27
1%
>$700 million - Black Panther
1%
>$804 million - Spider-Man: No Way Home
Resolved
YES
>$206 million - Thor: The Dark World
Resolved
YES
>$259 million - Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Resolved
YES
>$318 million - Iron Man
Resolved
YES
>$358 million - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Resolved
YES
>$411 million - Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Resolved
YES
>$459 million - Avengers: Age of Ultron
Resolved
YES
>$623 million - The Avengers

These markets will resolve based on the (cumulative) "DOMESTIC" gross for "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) listed by BoxOfficeMojo three months after release (i.e. October 26th): https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/

Details

  • I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined.

  • For simplicity, I rounded down the gross of previous MCU films to the nearest million. These numbers (displayed in the current market options [1]) are what I will compare to the "Deadpool & Wolverine" gross (not the full precision available elsewhere).

  • I prefer to resolve options NO once the result is mathematically certain—to formalize this, if 5x the movie's latest weekly gross (for the remaining market duration) wouldn't be enough to cross the threshold (and there are no extraneous circumstances). [2]

Example

  • The "DOMESTIC" gross for "Deadpool 2" (2018) was $324,591,735.

  • With this gross:

    • The [>$318 million - Iron Man] option would resolve YES.

    • The [>$358 million - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3] option would resolve NO.

"Deadpool & Wolverine" releases on July 26th. Its trailer (supposedly) set the record for the most viewed trailer within 24 hours.

[1]. Unless I made an obvious mistake in copying these down, in which let me know and I will try to correct it.

[2]. As this was added to the market description, if there are any complaints from earlier bettors I can of course just leave the options open for the full duration.

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@Ziddletwix Could resolve The Avengers as YES now.

bought Ṁ10 >$700 million - Blac... YES

@Ziddletwix Could resolve up to ~500 million.

@traders Let's get fancy. Two plus markets for "Deadpool & Wolverine". Plenty of liquidity here.

/Ziddletwix/how-much-will-deadpool-wolverine-20

/Ziddletwix/will-deadpool-wolverine-2024-have-a

Plus, check out the dashboard!