How many seats will Marine Le Pen's National Rally party win in the 2024 French legislative elections?

10kṀ7300

resolved Jul 8

ALL

100%13%

<180

36%

181-230

35%

231-288

15%

>289

Resolution: This market resolves to the number of seats won by the National Rally (Rassemblement National i.e. RN) party in the 2024 French legislative elections.

I will resolve based on the totals reported by Le Monde. Here are the results from 2022—National Rally ("RN") won 89 seats.
- I note the source because Wikipedia notes that some sources might disagree on party classifications, although I don't expect that to be an issue for RN.
This count refers to the seats won by the RN party itself, not a potential coalition it joins.
This is a two stage election—June 30th & July 7th. This market will close the night before the first stage (midnight PT, June 29th). It will resolve once Le Monde reports the results, after July 7th.
I'm not an expert in French politics—if any scenarios are unclear, please ask.

Context

Macron called for a shocking snap election after his party was demolished in the EU elections by a surging RN party.
RN's historical results:
- 2012 - 2 seats won
- 2017 - 8 seats won
- 2022 - 89 seats won
RN is comfortably ahead of all other parties in the polls. However, in France's two stage National Assembly elections, far right parties sometimes struggle in the second round (once moderate candidates no longer split the vote with each other).