How many seats will Marine Le Pen's National Rally party win in the 2024 French legislative elections?
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Plus
38
7.3k
resolved Jul 8
100%13%
<180
·
1mo
36%
181-230
·
1mo
35%
231-288
·
1mo
15%
>289
·
1mo

Resolution: This market resolves to the number of seats won by the National Rally (Rassemblement National i.e. RN) party in the 2024 French legislative elections.

  • I will resolve based on the totals reported by Le Monde. Here are the results from 2022—National Rally ("RN") won 89 seats.

    • I note the source because Wikipedia notes that some sources might disagree on party classifications, although I don't expect that to be an issue for RN.

  • This count refers to the seats won by the RN party itself, not a potential coalition it joins.

  • This is a two stage election—June 30th & July 7th. This market will close the night before the first stage (midnight PT, June 29th). It will resolve once Le Monde reports the results, after July 7th.

  • I'm not an expert in French politics—if any scenarios are unclear, please ask.

Context

  • Macron called for a shocking snap election after his party was demolished in the EU elections by a surging RN party.

  • RN's historical results:

    • 2012 - 2 seats won

    • 2017 - 8 seats won

    • 2022 - 89 seats won

  • RN is comfortably ahead of all other parties in the polls. However, in France's two stage National Assembly elections, far right parties sometimes struggle in the second round (once moderate candidates no longer split the vote with each other).

Related markets:

/Ziddletwix/polymarket-national-rally-coalition

/Ziddletwix/polymarket-which-party-will-win-the-rkn3t1qdg2

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As for now, according to "Le Monde", it's between 134 and 152.

@traders Resolved to <180. If it were remotely close, I'd probably wait a few more days to see if anything else shifts on the margin. but Le Monde is reporting 143 for RN + LR (and this market is just for RN), and so there's no point in waiting.

Check out the dashboard, there currently aren't great markets on the governing coalition, but the most interesting remaining market is probably predicting the PM.

First round is complete. As per the description, this market will stay closed until after the second round, next week.

It's looking quite strong for RN, IIUC.

The two-stage election really hurts RN. They led in the EU elections in every department outside of Paris metro, but consistently got a plurality of about 35%. When after it comes down to RN vs. the winner of the socialists and Renaissance, the later two will team up and win almost everywhere. Basically, they need 50% of the first round vote to win a seat, a feat that is quite unlikely even in American swing races with few third parties.

Good tweet / bad tweet?

These super important elections are just a few weeks away! Marine Le Pen's far right "National Rally" party is polling extremely well, and as coalitions shift the entire French political landscape could look wildly different within a month.

Place your bets ASAP.

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