[Polymarket] National Rally coalition wins majority of seats in French Election?
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Jun 30
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From CNN:

Macron gambles on snap election after crushing loss to French far right in EU vote

After initial projections, the far-right National Rally (RN) party came out on top with 31.5% of the vote, more than double the share of Renaissance, which scraped into second place on 15.2% of the vote, just ahead of the Socialists in third with 14.3% of the vote.

In a celebratory speech after the publication of the exit poll, RN leader Jordan Bardella had called on Macron to dissolve the French parliament, calling the gap between the two parties a “stinging disavowal” for the president.

  • This market is a clone of a question on Polymarket—I include their full resolution criteria below, and I will follow their resolution.

  • This is a two stage election—this market will close the night before the first stage on June 30th.

Resolution Details

  • French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.

  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if National Rally (Rassemblement National) or any coalition of which it is part controls a majority of seats in the French National Assembly, specifically 289 or more seats, as a result of the next French Legislative Election.

  • Only coalitions which are formally announced before the start of the second round of voting (currently scheduled for July 7) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If National Rally does not enter into a coalition prior to the second round of voting, this market will resolve solely based off the number of seats won by the National Rally party.

  • The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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