only candidate she could feasibly win a majority against in the second tour is a crazy like Mélenchon, with whom she generally splits the non-centrist vote with in the premier tour.

Meanwhile centrist voters (Renaissance/PS/LR) are more informed/strategic/unlikely to split the vote when there's a LePen v. Mélenchon runoff risk.

look at what happened in 2022, at a time when Macron was fairly unpopular

TL;DR centrist vote can be counted on to rally last-minute b/c Mélenchon/Le Pen/crazies too offputting. Then, none of the crazies really have a chance vs. the centrist.

@EricBolton rally around one candidate*