Marine Le Pen Will be the next president of France.
Marine Le Pen Will be the next president of France.
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Marine Le Pen is a French politician and the leader of the Rassemblement National party.
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only candidate she could feasibly win a majority against in the second tour is a crazy like Mélenchon, with whom she generally splits the non-centrist vote with in the premier tour.
Meanwhile centrist voters (Renaissance/PS/LR) are more informed/strategic/unlikely to split the vote when there's a LePen v. Mélenchon runoff risk.
look at what happened in 2022, at a time when Macron was fairly unpopular
TL;DR centrist vote can be counted on to rally last-minute b/c Mélenchon/Le Pen/crazies too offputting. Then, none of the crazies really have a chance vs. the centrist.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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