Marine Le Pen Will be the next president of France.
Plus
57
Ṁ64142027
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Marine Le Pen is a French politician and the leader of the Rassemblement National party.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
only candidate she could feasibly win a majority against in the second tour is a crazy like Mélenchon, with whom she generally splits the non-centrist vote with in the premier tour.
Meanwhile centrist voters (Renaissance/PS/LR) are more informed/strategic/unlikely to split the vote when there's a LePen v. Mélenchon runoff risk.
look at what happened in 2022, at a time when Macron was fairly unpopular
TL;DR centrist vote can be counted on to rally last-minute b/c Mélenchon/Le Pen/crazies too offputting. Then, none of the crazies really have a chance vs. the centrist.
Related questions
Related questions
Who will be the next president of France?
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election
23% chance
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
19% chance
Who will be the next president of France after Macron?
Will Jean-Marie Le Pen die in 2024?
25% chance
Will the next president of France be from a left-wing party
36% chance
Will Jean-Marie Le Pen survive until the end of 2024?
36% chance
Will Jean-Marie Le Pen survive until the end of 2025?
56% chance
Who will be the next president of France in 2027 ?
Who will win the 2027 french presidential election