Marine Le Pen Will be the next president of France.
64
1kṀ92102027
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Marine Le Pen is a French politician and the leader of the Rassemblement National party.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
only candidate she could feasibly win a majority against in the second tour is a crazy like Mélenchon, with whom she generally splits the non-centrist vote with in the premier tour.
Meanwhile centrist voters (Renaissance/PS/LR) are more informed/strategic/unlikely to split the vote when there's a LePen v. Mélenchon runoff risk.
look at what happened in 2022, at a time when Macron was fairly unpopular
TL;DR centrist vote can be counted on to rally last-minute b/c Mélenchon/Le Pen/crazies too offputting. Then, none of the crazies really have a chance vs. the centrist.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?
13% chance
If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?
66% chance
Who will be France's next Prime Minister?
Who will represent the center in the future french presidential election in 2027
Will the next president of France be from a left-wing party
19% chance
Marine Le Pen legally barred from running for French President in 2027?
78% chance