[Polymarket] Which party will win the most seats in the French Election?
Jul 7
National Rally

From CNN:

Macron gambles on snap election after crushing loss to French far right in EU vote

France’s President Emmanuel Macron has dissolved the country’s parliament, the National Assembly, and called a snap election after an exit poll showed his Renaissance party is set to be trounced by the far-right opposition in European parliamentary elections on Sunday.

  • This market is a clone of a question on Polymarket—I include their full resolution criteria below, and I will follow their resolution.

  • This is a two stage election—this market will close the night before the second stage on July 7th.

Resolution Details

  • French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.

  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if [SELECTED PARTY] wins the most seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election.

  • If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "No".

  • In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

  • This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the [SELECTED PARTY], not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.

  • The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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