From CNN:
Macron gambles on snap election after crushing loss to French far right in EU vote
France’s President Emmanuel Macron has dissolved the country’s parliament, the National Assembly, and called a snap election after an exit poll showed his Renaissance party is set to be trounced by the far-right opposition in European parliamentary elections on Sunday.
This market is a clone of a question on Polymarket—I include their full resolution criteria below, and I will follow their resolution.
This is a two stage election—this market will close the night before the second stage on July 7th.
Resolution Details
French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if [SELECTED PARTY] wins the most seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election.
If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "No".
In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the [SELECTED PARTY], not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Related market:
/Ziddletwix/polymarket-national-rally-coalition
/Ziddletwix/how-many-seats-will-marine-le-pens
Check out the 2024 French Legislative Elections dashboard
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,957 | |
| 2 | Ṁ320 | |
| 3 | Ṁ143 | |
| 4 | Ṁ99 | |
| 5 | Ṁ66 |
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-french-election?tid=1720753840829
It is with great sadness that today I shall concede the 13 mana I have, with great faith invested. UMA's undemocratic seizure of power from the lower class polymarket bettors is deplorable and will not be forgotten. To ignore the passionate discord pleas that Ensemble really was a party all along is an evil, misguided act that erodes the very foundation of our prediction markets.
To all those who have supported me in this journey, I thank you greatly. It has been tough. There are days when your effort, no matter how rigorous will go totally unnoticed and that is a fact of life. To all those bettors who will be taking this return from me, know this: I will not back down. I will not give up. Even if the mana I have put in this bet is dead, the spirit of buying low and selling high remains alive in my soul and manifold account, and every day I will fight to earn more. But what would life be without its setbacks? What can we really love about life and ourselves, if not for the imperfections of others? I know that this robbery will only make my retribution sweeter.
I see a brighter future ahead, so I will hold my peace here.
-Eric
You are an honorable man, and I respect your calm in the face of this catastrophic dozen mana loss. To avoid such tragedies in the future, I recommend that you raise the funds to buy a majority stake in UMA, thus ensuring that such a heinous violation of trust never happens again. God speed.
The NFP is a coalition, comprised by 4 different left wing parties (socialists, greens, communists, LFI, IIRC), not a single party. The description is very clear on that point.
this is a polymarket clone, so I expect it will follow the Polymarket resolution, unless something weird happens. And I would be very surprised if polymarket did not resolve to RN.
There's a big argument on Polymarket discord and UMA might resolve RN as no and renaissance yes. Since you've bet on this yourself, I think that either a mod resolving or you committing to the polymarket resolution would be best.
The argument for resolving that RN lost is that RN is a coalition, and the largest party in the RN coalition won less seats than Renaissance. As a coalition, the RN won less seats than the NFP
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html
Here is proof that the Renaissance is an individual party:
On April 5, 2022, a party was registered under the name Renaissance38. On May 10, 2022, the Renaissance political party officially took the name "Ensemble pour la majorité présidentielle "39 , as did the association that financed it40. The name "Ensemble pour la majorité présidentielle" registered on May 5, 2022 had previously been registered by the UMP on May 15, 200741 but had been abandoned. The name "Ensemble! Majorité Présidentielle" was also registered with the INPI on the same May 5, 202242."
https://www.journal-officiel.gouv.fr/pages/associations-detail-annonce/?q.id=id:202200191585
Re
this is a polymarket clone, so I expect it will follow the Polymarket resolution, unless something weird happens
Market says
This market is a clone of a question on Polymarket—I include their full resolution criteria below, and I will follow their resolution.
I don't like the "unless something weird happens" commment - that's underspecified and wasn't in the original description. In any dispute, you could argue that "something weird happened". The market rules say it's a full polymarket clone and IMO therefore it should follow them, even if they had a dumb dispute that 90% of Manifolders think went the wrong way, because otherwise someone has to judge whether the Polymarket resolution was correct, and since it's already disputed there won't be an obvious answer everyone agrees on.
If by "something weird happens" you mean something beyond just a dispute, e.g. if there's some bug where the market resolves differently than intended, that I'd probably agree with going with the intended resolution (as intended by polymarket UMA resolution, of course)
(I could also maybe get behind a "something weird happens" edge case where you don't follow Polymarket: when a bad actor proposes a wrong resolution and it just happened that nobody disputed it in the dispute time window and so it went through, but everyone agrees it was wrong. I don't think that's every happened but theoretically it could. Unlike in a dispute, in this scenario nobody disagrees, someone just managed to run a wrong resolution past Polymarket.)
Yup, that's all totally fair. FWIW, my plan is to follow Polymarket's resolution, even if it's bad, as that's in the description. The "if something weird happens" was just informal language added offhand as I replied on my phone (for extreme edge cases), not a statement about my plan to overrule Polymarket if I disagreed. E.g. in the recent DJT market where Polymarket itself explicitly disavowed UMA's resolution, I think that's a very tricky case—the website lists one thing, but Polymarket itself took a stand, and paid out the other side as well. I think that's sufficiently "weird" that there might be some judgment involved about how to rule. Obviously, "I personally think UMA is being dumb" is not an edge case.
Also this is why I don't like making markets that are just clones of polymarket
Totally fair, but this is an area where I don't know much about the topic, and I often (personally) prefer markets where even if the description is imperfect, at least "guessing the judge" is well defined. (French elections are genuinely tricky—right now Manifold has another market with a resolution dispute going on, because it was similarly underspecified.). A well-specified question is ideal, but if not, a well-specified resolution process (imo) is at least cleaner for participants to understand.
FWIW, I am pretty confident Polymarket is going to resolve to NR. They just issued a formal clarification, and from glancing at the UMA Discord earlier, it didn't look like they were swayed by the earlier legalese argument anyways.
Polymarket has some bad resolutions, but in this case I'm not sure my own (or a comparable Manifolder's) attempt at a market would have gone much better. Large sums were bet on Polymarket before people noticed the somewhat strange technical point that while "Renaissance" was listed as one of the parties within this market, technically the whole "Ensemble" can itself be considered a "party" as well (as well as a "coalition"). (I didn't spot that, but to be fair neither did the people betting large sums!). The spirit of the market was quite clear ("Renaissance" itself was listed, so "Ensemble" was not meant to count under "Other"). But overall it's pretty standard that you'll find this sort of "argument based on a technicality" disputing a resolution (even if the question had been better posed), and in this case I'm actually mildly glad it was a Polymarket clone since I think they'd be more informed about evaluating it than I would be. (There doesn't appear to be much French election expertise on Manifold in general).
oops