This market resolves YES if Marine Le Pen is legally barred from running for French President in 2027.

Main context: in her current embezzlement trial verdict, she is facing up to 5 years of ineligibility.

The market resolves YES if:

• there is a legal ban from her running for president that is applicable to the 2027 election.

  This could be the case for example:

  • Because the court ruling is provisionally executable (meaning it takes effect regardless of appeals).

  • Because she has gone through all possible appeals and is sentenced in a final, no long appealable manner.

• Market resolves NO if she can still run for president, even if a court ruling has sentenced her to ineligibility but the ruling, for any reason, is not applicable at the time of the presidential election.

Sources:

• Politico: Prosecutors request ban on Marine Le Pen running for public office in embezzlement trial