Marine Le Pen legally barred from running for French President in 2027?
Marine Le Pen legally barred from running for French President in 2027?
Basic
7
Ṁ170
2027
36%
chance

This market resolves YES if Marine Le Pen is legally barred from running for French President in 2027.

Main context: in her current embezzlement trial verdict, she is facing up to 5 years of ineligibility.

The market resolves YES if:

  • there is a legal ban from her running for president that is applicable to the 2027 election.

    This could be the case for example:

    • Because the court ruling is provisionally executable (meaning it takes effect regardless of appeals).

    • Because she has gone through all possible appeals and is sentenced in a final, no long appealable manner.

  • Market resolves NO if she can still run for president, even if a court ruling has sentenced her to ineligibility but the ruling, for any reason, is not applicable at the time of the presidential election.

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There’s already a petition against her being hypothetically barred from running:

https://rassemblementnational.fr/petition/defendez-la-democratie-soutenez-marine

1mo

“Prosecutors urged the presiding judge to enforce the sentence immediately, which would bar Le Pen from running for office during any appeal process.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-french-far-right-politicized-justice-system-prosecutors-running-office-ban/

1mo

“leader of the French far right, said the punishment being sought by prosecutors — which includes an immediate five-year ban on running for office — is tantamount to “a political death sentence because it’s irreparable.””

https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-french-far-right-politicized-justice-system-prosecutors-running-office-ban/

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