Resolution

These options resolve YES if Trump says the exact sequence of words at the first debate. Examples:

• "Winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning".

• "Laughing at all of us" would not count for "laughing at us".

However this only refers to the sequence of words, any punctuation is fine—"horrible radical, left lunatic" does count for "radical left".

To help find these, I plan to check the transcript from the CPD website. But the transcript won't necessarily be the ultimate source (e.g. it might slightly diverge in spelling, punctuation, usage of contractions, etc)—as long as it sounds like he said the phrase in the debate audio (and not some other word), I will err on the side of YES.

Background

• This market refers to the first debate held between Biden & Trump in 2024, as long as it is before July 31st (currently: June 27th, on CNN).

  • If the debate is cancelled or postponed beyond then, I will ask the mods to N/A this market, as I don't want to lock up mana for the next 5 months.

• This market will close before the first debate begins (to recoup liquidity).

• You can add your own submissions, but note that it costs 1000M (this is a Plus market), and I reserve the right to N/A any that don't follow the current format (or for any reason).

  • Submissions don't need to explicitly be "Trump-isms"—e.g. you can add "Venezuela" or "Artificial intelligence" if you want to bet that he'll mention them. It just needs to be a sequence of words.

  • For more general betting on "what will happen in the debate", check out @ManifoldPolitics 's official prop bet market.

Examples

Does not count:

• "Winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning".

• "Radical leftism" does not count for "radical left".

• "Illegal immigrants" or "illegal migrant" does not count for "illegal migrants".

• "MAGA" does not count for "Make America Great Again".

• "Beautiful, big, wall" does not count for "beautiful wall".

• “Booming economy” does not count for “boomer”.

• “Radical islamic terrorism” and “radical Islamic terrorist” do not count for “radical Islamic terrorists”.

Does count:

• "Blood bath" counts for "bloodbath".

• "Horrible radical, left lunatic" counts for "radical left".

• "America the beautiful. Wall..." counts for "beautiful wall" (I would be very surprised if this sort of edge case arose, but I plan to be literal about "words in sequence, ignoring punctuation).

• "Billions and [CROSSTALK] billions" counts for "billions and billions", if it's clear Trump said those words in sequence (i.e. even if the transcript includes other sounds).

• “L train” (if it somehow came up) would count for “L”.

Related: /Ziddletwix/first-debate-bidenisms-megamarket-w