Trump-isms VP Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Trump say in his VP announcement speech?
Basic
71
20k
Jul 18
98.8%
“Vance”
93%
"A great guy" OR "a great gal"
89%
"Many, many"
86%
”Huge”
85%
"Our border"
85%
"Winning"
85%
"God Bless..."
81%
"Next vice president of the United States"
79%
"Tremendous"
78%
"Brilliant" OR "Brilliantly"
77%
"Make America Great Again"
75%
"Love him" or "Love her"
69%
"Really smart"
69%
"Great country"
63%
"Attractive" OR "good looking" OR "handsome"
59%
"Yale"
52%
"Fake news"
50%
"Genius"
24%
"Billions and billions"
23%
"Pence"

These options resolve YES if Donald Trump says the exact sequence of words during the first full campaign event that he holds to introduce his running mate to the press.

  • This will follow the same rules as the Trump-isms Debate Megamarket—see the original market for more detailed examples.

  • To define which event counts, I'll mirror the Official VP Introduction Prop Bets (see that description for a more comprehensive definition).

    • TL;DR: Live introduction to the press, here's his introduction of Pence in 2016 (transcript), if no qualifying event occurs all options N/A.

  • This market will likely close before the event begins (if it's announced enough in advance) to recoup liquidity.

  • You can add your own responses, but note (1) I intend to be strict with resolution (following the rules below), & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.

Resolution examples:

  • Needs to be exact same words (in order): "laughing at all of us" does not count for "laughing at us".

  • Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winnings" or "winner" do not count for "winning".

  • However, any punctuation is fine ("Billions! And billions..." counts for "billions and billions"), and contractions can count as the expanded words ("what's" is equivalent to "what is").

  • Different ways of transcribing the same word count: "January 6th" = "January sixth".

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bought Ṁ50 Answer #4n0pbvjasl NO

Extended close time. If I hear in advance when Trump will be speaking to give his introductory speech, I'll close it before (but if I don't have any warning, then this will be open for live trading).

Again, for "which speech counts", I will follow the @ManifoldPolitics definition. Latest update:

If Vance gives a speech without Trump introducing him, that doesn't count and we'll wait for a proper dual speech with both of them.

(Again, Vance speaking himself at RNC will certainly not count, this is about what Trump says)

bought Ṁ15 "Really smart" NO

Honestly Trump's introduction of Pence is nuts lol—he rambles about himself for a long time and then randomly will circle back to listing Pence's accomplishments in Indiana.

that's on-brand

thankfully 4 years of the presidency has really matured him

yeah he was a whole different person in his rally speech yesterday - I almost didn't recognise him! really unifying and inspirational. we're lucky to have another chance at four more years with him.

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