In which year will the first baby be born as the result of legal germline gene editing?
In which year will the first baby be born as the result of legal germline gene editing?
3
200Ṁ1602036
3%
2025
9%
2026
13%
2027
13%
2028
25%
2029
13%
2030 - 2032
13%
2033 - 2035
13%
Does not occur legally before 2036
Question resolves to the year the baby is born (which could be different from the year the editing happens).
Background reading from Gene Smith for those interested:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfrSZaf3JC8vJdbZL/how-to-make-superbabies
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What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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