In which year will the first baby be born as the result of legal germline gene editing? | Manifold

In which year will the first baby be born as the result of legal germline gene editing?

3

200Ṁ160

2036

3%

2025

9%

2026

13%

2027

13%

2028

25%

2029

13%

2030 - 2032

13%

2033 - 2035

13%

Does not occur legally before 2036

Question resolves to the year the baby is born (which could be different from the year the editing happens).

Background reading from Gene Smith for those interested:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfrSZaf3JC8vJdbZL/how-to-make-superbabies

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Related questions

Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally?

Will any genetically modified human embryo be legally born by the end of 2025?

When will commercial gene-editing therapy be available?

Will there be a credible (see details) announcement of human multiplex gene editing (≥5 genomic loci) pre 2026?

By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?

Will there be an in-vivo gene therapy that edits multiple genes at once approved anywhere in the world before 2030?

Before 2026, will any US state introduce legislation regulating the genetic screening of embryos?

Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?

Will the identities of the 2018 gene edited Chinese babies be revealed before 2030?

Preimplantation genetic diagnosis liberalised in Germany before 2027?

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