Resolves YES if Trumps probability of winning the election is 1% or more higher than Harris according to https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 over a 24 hour rolling averaged period.

Resolves NO if this has not occurred by Nov. 4 11:59PM PT (day before election).

Inspired by other market, but with caveat that he must lead over an 24hr period by >=1%.

Clarification: Trump must lead by >=1.0% over a 24 hour rolling average (if required I will use calculate out to 1-decimal place).

Edit: I will not bet in this market.