Resolves YES if Trump has a higher probability of winning the election than Harris according to https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964. Resolves NO if this hasn't happened by the time this market closes (a day before the election).
Inspired by https://manifold.markets/jim/trump-to-pass-harris, except it uses Manifold's probability rather than that of Election Betting Odds.
Clarifications: Even a second of Trump's probability > Harris' probability counts. Since the election market is a crystal market and this one is a basic market, I'm not too worried about someone manipulating the other market for the sole purpose of resolving this one. Also, Trump's probability must be greater than Harris', if they are tied, this doesn't resolve YES. If it comes down to the wire, I will look at the trading log to determine the resolution. To keep myself unbiased, I won't bet here.
Please ping me if this does happen to get a faster resolution.
Update 8/19 6:48 PM EST: Changed title from Will Trump pass Harris [Manifold version]? to Will Trump pass Harris [on Manifold]?
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@traders It looks like after some crazy spikes caused by gigantic bets (at around 2:00 PM EST), Trump temporarily passed Harris (this was not the user who spiked it, but their trades show clearly that Trump's % was more than Harris' %).
I have closed the market. If there are no objections, I'll resolve this YES by the end of today.
If the past couple days have taught me anything it is that metabetting on betting markets is dumb because they are not rational, especially in the short term where one idiot can swing a market wildly before it being corrected (by more rational actors buying the swing).
Made a market which does not resolve unless he passes her for >1 day. https://manifold.markets/ZackFrank/will-trump-pass-harris-on-manifold?r=WmFja0ZyYW5r
@traders It looks like after some crazy spikes caused by gigantic bets (at around 2:00 PM EST), Trump temporarily passed Harris (this was not the user who spiked it, but their trades show clearly that Trump's % was more than Harris' %).
I have closed the market. If there are no objections, I'll resolve this YES by the end of today.
Clarifications: Even a second of Trump's probability > Harris' probability counts. Since the election market is a crystal market and this one is a basic market, I'm not too worried about someone manipulating the other market for the sole purpose of resolving this one. Also, Trump's probability must be greater than Harris', if they are tied, this doesn't resolve YES. If it comes down to the wire, I will look at the trading log to determine the resolution. To keep myself unbiased, I won't bet here.
Please ping me if this does happen to get a faster resolution.
I would say that even a second counts. Since the election market is a crystal market and this one is a basic market, I don't think it would be possible to manipulate the other market to make this one resolve and have a net gain.