Will Trump pass Harris on Manifold [>=1%, 1 day avg]
44
1kṀ13kresolved Oct 16
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Trumps probability of winning the election is 1% or more higher than Harris according to https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 over a 24 hour rolling averaged period.
Resolves NO if this has not occurred by Nov. 4 11:59PM PT (day before election).
Inspired by other market, but with caveat that he must lead over an 24hr period by >=1%.
Clarification: Trump must lead by >=1.0% over a 24 hour rolling average (if required I will use calculate out to 1-decimal place).
Edit: I will not bet in this market.
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