Will Trump pass Harris on Manifold [>=1%, 1 day avg]
44
1kṀ13kresolved Oct 16
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Trumps probability of winning the election is 1% or more higher than Harris according to https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 over a 24 hour rolling averaged period.
Resolves NO if this has not occurred by Nov. 4 11:59PM PT (day before election).
Inspired by other market, but with caveat that he must lead over an 24hr period by >=1%.
Clarification: Trump must lead by >=1.0% over a 24 hour rolling average (if required I will use calculate out to 1-decimal place).
Edit: I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ553 | |
| 2 | Ṁ465 | |
| 3 | Ṁ361 | |
| 4 | Ṁ240 | |
| 5 | Ṁ238 |
People are also trading
Related questions
If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
41% chance
Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?
Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
33% chance