OpenAI Preparedness Scorecard: Any "High" in 2024?
15
Ṁ1kṀ2.1kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
OpenAI plans to publish a scorecard on their models' dangerous capabilities, pre- and post-mitigations. Will their scorecard ever show a High risk score (pre-mitigations, in any category)—or will OpenAI otherwise announce that a model reached High—by the end of 2024?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ141 | |
| 2 | Ṁ115 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
Sort by:
IMO the most likely category to reach high-risk in 2024 would be model autonomy:
Model can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self-improvement (e.g., an OpenAI pull request that trains a new model with highly diverse datasets to improve codebase editing performance, using internal tooling and documentation)
People are also trading
Related questions
What will AI score on TheAgentCompany benchmark in early 2026?
46% chance
Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score in 2026?
When will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?
Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
16% chance
Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?
4% chance
When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?
4/6/28
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
10/29/27
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
2036