IMO the most likely category to reach high-risk in 2024 would be model autonomy:

Model can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self-improvement (e.g., an OpenAI pull request that trains a new model with highly diverse datasets to improve codebase editing performance, using internal tooling and documentation)

"by 2025" seems like a more accurate title

@BrendanFinan I prefer "before 2025" to "by 2025," but regardless edited to "in 2024."