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Will a commercial airline have an eVTOL in use on a working public route by the end of 2025?

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Which eVTOL manufacturer will be first to achieve FAA certification?

Will a commercial airline have an eVTOL in use on a working public route by the end of 2026?

6% chance

Will the FAA delay approval for any SpaceX flight for more than 30 days in 2025?

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In 2030 will VTOL aircraft be the obvious future of most personnel transportation

19% chance

Commercial civilian autonomous flights by EOY 2040?

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Will anyone deliver a human organ via autonomous jet drone before 2026?

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By 2040, will it be possible to take an electric VTOL aircraft on a trip of at least 75 miles for less than $100

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Will there be AI drone that replaces current FPV drones in 2025? (can go 10km without wire/being jammed)

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Slow progress on FAA certification from Joby

bought Ṁ200 NO

Barely budged in Q2

@Yves just making sure: if Beta's ALIA gets certified in the CTOL configuration, this doesn't count as YES, right?

@jgyou Will look into this!

For what it's worth, I don't think it should count as YES.

The CTOL configuration bypasses vertical takeoff specifically to make certification easier and generate revenue for Beta faster.

But it is just a stepping stone to the eVTOL cert, which will be much harder to secure. No one ever built an aircraft that can reliably and safely transition from vertical to horizontal propulsion mid-flight. It will take a lot of testing to convince the FAA.

No way. JOBY is the furthest along and they have barely started Stage 4.

@jgyou how long do the later stages usually take?

@Morgan FAA states that certification of new aircraft types can take 5-9 years. The later stages are the longest because that's when actual testing + review happens. First stages are just paperwork.