By 2040, will it be possible to take an electric VTOL aircraft on a trip of at least 75 miles for less than $100
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15
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2041
19%
chance

This question is intended to capture a scenario where electric VTOL aircraft are becoming or already have become competitive with other mid-to-long range transit options.

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predicts YES

Testing an AI generated market image methodology:

Is 75 miles really mid-to-long range?

I consider this quite unlikely because of the many parts that need to be true for the final resolution criteria to be true.

People want to fly VTOL aircraft.
They want to fly longer than 75 miles.
There is at least one manufacturer making capable vehicles reasonably cheaply. (Although I assume you mean $100 in 2023-dollars.)
There is infrastructure to support VTOL traffic.
There is a legal framework that allows for VTOL traffic.

And probably several more that I have not even thought about yet. Each of these are somewhat-to-very difficult IMO.

predicts YES

@NiklasWiklander I think the technical stuff seems doable, the legal challenges seem hard, but I doubt ridership would be an issue.

I'm considering 75 miles mid-range because that's about the distance of "annoying to drive" where someone might consider alternatives if they're sufficiently cheap. For example, flights of that length could allow people who regularly go back and forth between SF and Sacramento to slash the travel time by a ton, and the VTOL would enable a more urban takeoff/landing environment.