Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single company publicly announces verifiable binding purchase agreements or confirmed pre-orders for 10,000 or more passenger-carrying electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft by December 31, 2026, where a monetary commitment (e.g., deposit, pre-delivery payment) has been made for these units. The resolution will be based on official company statements, financial reports, or credible aviation news sources. If a company's "sales" or "order book" explicitly includes non-binding Letters of Intent (LOIs) or Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) to reach the 10,000 threshold, these will count if they are presented by the company as part of their total units "sold" or "ordered" with an anticipated delivery timeframe that includes 2026.

Background

The eVTOL industry is a rapidly developing sector focused on creating electric aircraft capable of vertical take-off and landing, primarily for urban air mobility (UAM) and regional air mobility (RAM). Several companies are in various stages of development, certification, and pre-production, with many targeting commercial operations and initial customer deliveries around 2026. The global eVTOL market is projected to reach significant valuations, but actual unit sales and deliveries are currently low. Major players include Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, Lilium, EHang, Eve Air Mobility, and Vertical Aerospace.

Companies typically announce "orders" through pre-orders, letters of intent, or binding purchase agreements. As of October 2025:

• Aridge (formerly Xpeng Aeroht) has announced over 7,000 global pre-orders for its flying cars, though commercial deliveries for new GCC orders are anticipated by 2027.

• Eve Air Mobility holds letters of intent for 2,900 eVTOLs.

• Vertical Aerospace has 1,500 pre-orders for its VX4 aircraft.

• Archer Aviation has nearly $6 billion in "indicative orders" which represent more than 1,000 aircraft, with associated pre-delivery payments. United Airlines has placed an order for "hundreds" of Archer aircraft, including a $10 million pre-delivery payment for 100 units.

• EHang has secured purchase plans, including an initial order of 30 EH216-S units and plans for an additional 270 by the end of 2026 with Wencheng County, totaling 300 units. Another agreement includes a firm purchase of 50 units and a plan to purchase an additional 450 over two years. EHang delivered 68 units in a recent quarter and received over 150 new orders in another recent quarter.

• Lilium has firm orders, such as 50 Lilium Jets from Saudia Group (with options for 50 more) and 20 Lilium Jets from UrbanLink (with options for 20 more), with first customer deliveries targeted for 2026.

Production capacities are still limited; for example, Joby Aviation expects to manufacture 24 eVTOL aircraft annually by 2025.

Considerations

The definition of "sold" in the nascent eVTOL market can be ambiguous, with companies often reporting "pre-orders" or "letters of intent" which may not always represent firm, non-cancellable contracts with significant monetary commitments. The market threshold of 10,000+ passenger eVTOLs by a single company by 2026 represents a substantial volume, especially considering that many companies are still in the certification and early production phases, with actual deliveries anticipated to scale up in the years following 2026.