Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel this morning (October 7th). The IDF responded. How long will the conflict last until official or defacto cease fire? Resolves YES if the conflict is over before November 1st 00:00, Israel time.
I will resolve to the best of my judgement based on Israeli news publications, or translated Gazan publications.
Will not bet on this market myself.
Clarification: the ceasefire has to be the real end of hostilities for this round. If there's a ceasefire and then some side immediately breaks it, it will not count. I will wait a week to see whether the ceasefire holds. The ceasefire has to happen within the time frame specified above, even if the week extends into November.
PS: one of my first markets here, probably made many mistakes in format/phrasing. Corrections welcome.
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@PGeyer Fury leads to lashing out in all directions. So much history of suffering on all sides.
https://news.sky.com/story/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-gaza-latest-sky-news-blog-12978800
@MatanNov Note that it's actually "Will there be a week long ceasefire by November 6". (and I think that's lower than 3%)
@YotamFederman “By X” means on or before X. If you say it’ll be done by June, or next year, as long as it’s done in June or next year, it’s not late.
However, you specified Nov 1 in your explanatory text. Now here, in your response, you say Nov 6. Three different dates have been noted: 11/1, 11/30, and 11/6. If it is 11/6, you may want to change the resolution rules, and be more careful in future markets. Thank you for an interesting market idea, and best of luck!
@PGeyer thanks for the tip. English not being my first language, I thought "by November" means "before November".
In any case, my response here is consistent with the description: the ceasefire has to happen before November, but to make sure it is real, I may wait until up to November 6th. I hope that's clearer.
I also answered the same on a previous comment.
@MatanNov sorry, I thought you wrote by the end of October - note that the war has to end in October, so before November. I made the title clearer, the resolution criteria and end date are correct.
@YotamFederman Yes, thus my inquiry. Your adjustment seems very fair. Thank you for your speedy response. Great market. I figured more time available, but even end of Nov seems optimistic, especially since every day, it only takes one bad actor to ruin someone’s day in the region.
@YotamFederman English is my native language and I think there is genuine ambiguity around when to interpret "by" as "strictly before" vs "before the end of". I think I'd actually have interpreted your original text in the way you'd intended (though I'm not certain because I don't remember what I was thinking in the few seconds between reading the title and reading the very clear criteria beneath). But given there's ambiguity the switch to "before" is still a good idea.
@ErjolaAvdiaj And the lesson they've given... Now the only way to get out of this is either to lie down and blend with the civilians, or, lie down in rubble.
What’s with the movement? Seems like there will be two fronts for sure now. https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/862063817181626408/1161687265345544202/IMG_1828.png?ex=65393493&is=6526bf93&hm=76b1b37da5134e8a4a489ea1c8708d28ad0663fba4202a1a64aeeb5b5da3ecc6&
The Israeli Palestinian war has been going on for the better part of 80 years. So I think this one of those things where retaliation happened which will only lead to further more catastrophic consequences for both sides. I absolutely think the future generations of both countries will be massively affected by what's happening today. Now the only way for this to stop is for a world level super power to intervene like the US and I don't see that happening anytime soon at least not with the dominance required.
@AhmedHazem I an under the impression that this market is about the current level of violence not the broader Israeli-Palastinian conflict