When will the yield curve uninvert (3M-10YR) ?
➕
Plus
5
Ṁ1278
2026
1.3%
Q3 2024
8%
Q4 2024
20%
Q1 2025
38%
Q2 2025
22%
Q3 2025
7%
Q4 2025
4%
2026 or later

Will resolve to the first date that FRED data shows a positive spread between 10yr - 3M yield of US Treasuries.

I reserve the right to use other reliable sources in the unlikely event that FRED data is unavailable. If I need to use an alternative source, it must be end of day data (intraday will not count).

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M

e.g. If FRED shows the 10YR-3M spread is positive (greater than zero) as of EOD March 25, 2025 - then Q1 2025 will resolve to yes and the rest will resolve to no.

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