Will 10-year treasury yields in 2032 be higher than 3.5%?
Mini
10
261
2033
55%
chance
Resolves YES if on May 26 2032 (10 years from the date this market opened), the value of https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 > 3.5%. Resolves NO if <= 3.5%. If this data source is not available, another equivalent one will be used. For context, currently 10-year treasury yields are 2.75% and 30-year treasury yields are 2.99%: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/mortgage-rates-higher-in-5-years
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predicts NO
I am thinking of my bets on long-term markets as some combination of "donations" towards Manifold, internet points, and just helping answer questions. Today they are a pretty lousy way to earn profits.
predicts NO
Yeah, we really need some solution to incentivize long-term betting, loans or something else.
Would love to bet on this, but very little incentive to bet on something so far out to make ~$12 mana best-case when I could use that same mana to bet on other stuff and get far greater return in that 10 years (assuming I am decent at betting). :/