When will the yield curve uninvert (3M-10YR) ?
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6
Ṁ7290resolved Dec 21
100%99.0%
Q4 2024
0.1%
Q3 2024
0.2%
Q1 2025
0.3%
Q2 2025
0.3%
Q3 2025
0.1%
Q4 2025
0.1%
2026 or later
Will resolve to the first date that FRED data shows a positive spread between 10yr - 3M yield of US Treasuries.
I reserve the right to use other reliable sources in the unlikely event that FRED data is unavailable. If I need to use an alternative source, it must be end of day data (intraday will not count).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
e.g. If FRED shows the 10YR-3M spread is positive (greater than zero) as of EOD March 25, 2025 - then Q1 2025 will resolve to yes and the rest will resolve to no.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@mods can you resolve this to Q4 2024 please? Linked graph shows the spread went positive this quarter
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