What will happen by July 1st? (ADD RESPONSES)
135
2.5k
15k
Jul 7
99.6%
Destiny speaks with Jordan Peterson
99.5%
Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce (rumors count - not legal proof; for example: ANYONE on Reddit/YouTube/X says finalized counts) screenshot must be posted in comments to resolve. Rumors it won't happen count too.
99%
June 5th, 2024
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is 90% or higher
99%
This market will have at least 10 questions resolve no
99%
Nikola Jokic will win MVP
98.3%
humane ai pin ships
98%
rabbit r1 ships
97%
The red team wins the Superbowl
81%
Elon Musk goes on any podcast
67%
There will be a ceasefire in Gaza
57%
Trump says at least 2 of these words: eagle, beagle, regal, legal, seagull, Seagal
46%
Tomatoes are the largest grossing fruit in terms of gross volume sold in the United Arab Emirates during passover (yes, tomatoes are a fruit!)
37%
A country experiences hyperinflation (at least one month with a monthly inflation rate of at least 50%)
33%
A Christian, Hindu or Buddhist terrorist bombing anywhere in the world. (extremist and/or in the name of the religion)
30%
Trump picks a VP candidate
20%
GPT-4.5 and/or GPT-5 is publicly released by OpenAI
19%
Jimmy Carter passes away
15%
The US government shuts down
12%
There will be a ceasefire in Ukraine

This is a place to create questions and bet on the events happening during and before June 6 2024

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

He’s deceased, he’s shuffled off this mortal coil, gone to meet his maker! He is an ex-owl!

bought Ṁ1 Answer #98ad7d6a44ed YES

@ClubmasterTransparent his body was returned though.

bought Ṁ200 Answer #98ad7d6a44ed NO

This can resolve NO, Flaco was found dead on February 23rd.

Comment hidden

@DanielTilkin but it doesn't specify alive.

Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce (rumors count - not legal proof; for example: ANYONE on Reddit/YouTube/X says finalized counts) screenshot must be posted in comments to resolve. Rumors it won't happen count too.
bought Ṁ555 Destiny and Melina f... YES

@YewNevano based on the criteria this should resolve yes either because this market resolved or because of this timestamped moment on YT where Destiny says it's finalised

The red team wins the Superbowl

@YewNevano this should probably NA - the Super Bowl happened in February but both teams wear red.

This can resolve YES

bought Ṁ555 Answer #12a17c2200dc YES

Flaco, Escaped Central Park Zoo Owl and Defier of Doubts, Is Dead https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/nyregion/flaco-owl-central-park-zoo-dead.html

Per article the corpse was returned to the zoo

I know it ruins the reputibility of the platform but I can't stop laughing whenever I see hyper dumb and obscene answers among serious stuff

bought Ṁ500 Answer #6072a8bae088 YES

Resolves yes

Summer Olympics don't start until July 26th, what is this question measuring?

bought Ṁ50 Answer #a2613319a95d NO

@houstonEuler It's mostly been measuring how many people don't look up those dates before betting yes, while I keep betting no against them.

June 5th, 2024

Similar to answers like "February 5, 2024", you might want to resolve this joke answer as N/A, since there's limited answer slots

bought Ṁ90 Answer #6f2e0603383b YES

Resolves yes.

Can we get another mod to come through and resolve a few of these? @Eliza ?
There are more than 10 questions waiting resolution.

bought Ṁ3 June 5th, 2024 NO

@PeterMillerc030 Np, they were all unambiguous. I remain a June 5th Truther, however.

@Joshua @shankypanky Also said "BTC ad on superbowl" resolves no. Which seems true:

https://nypost.com/2024/02/11/business/crypto-ads-absent-once-again-from-super-bowl-2024/

I think "Travis Kelce scores a touchdown" is a no, given the market started on 2/6, he didn't score one in the superbowl:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/15847/travis-kelce

And the NFL pre-season doesn't start until after this market closes:
https://fbschedules.com/nfl-preseason-schedule/

Though I guess that could stay open on the off chance the NFL season gets re-scheduled, or something?

The June 5th market is really a "wait and see" situation. I sold out due to the considerable uncertainty. Most gamblers don't know to quit when they're ahead, but I'm more responsible than that.

unsolicited opinion: maybe this should be closed for new responses for now, since the creator is unresponsive and not maintaining this market?

@PeterMillerc030 I can't unresolve options in a multimarket like this if I make a mistake so I'm hesitant to touch the football ones since I could perhaps be wrong.

Sure I'll flip the toggle, OP can flip it back if he wants though

@shankypanky Looks like @YewNevano was absent for a week, but did place a bet yesterday, so maybe will update this soon?

@PeterMillerc030 yes I spoke with Eliza about that yesterday before he made the comment below. like Joshua says Yew can open it up for submissions again but if they don't come back to give this market attention, leaving it open for submissions could get messy and burdensome for Mods (or spammy) so that's all I was thinking of with the suggestion. Hopefully Yew returns and runs this one though!

bought Ṁ555 Answer #586ac5ffd2eb NO

@YewNevano I resolved one answer on behalf of a user who has asked multiple times. I know this is your market but our guidelines for moderators say we should resolve markets promptly if the creator does not respond.

If you're not able to keep up with this market, you should flip the switch to Creator Only adds answers, and we can continue to help you manage the resolutions.

If you really want to leave them open indefinitely, that's fine, but you need to write that in the description and probably the title also, because users expect answers to be resolved promptly.