Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.
Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.
1,000
3.00@traders This is fucking bullshit. Resolved correctly but it’s still fucking bullshit. 2023 was a shit year.
Sharing some relevant information here: There has been an allegation that Predictor is the same person as Trent Yazzo (@kazoo), who started spamming the site with inappropriate markets and comments and then resolving those markets fraudulently.
The main evidence in favor of this theory is that many of Trent's early markets appeared to be profit transfers to Predictor. I'm a bit skeptical, as Predictor and Trent's behavior are extremely different, and I think I would have a hard time faking such a different personality from my own. I also don't really see the motive; Trent had been behaving oddly before Predictor made their "guess that's my cue to leave" comment below. But it's certainly plausible. See also Predictor's comment here, which suggests some relationship between the two. (Maybe they're not the same person, but are friends?)
@IsaacKing I nearly spit out my morning coffee reading this. That's quite some allegation and I can assure you that it's not true. 🤣
As a regular member of this community, this is difficult to stomach. Not sure why everyone has turned against me, but it is disheartening. I made my point while still following the community guidelines with that 1 market out of hundreds and made the participants whole via manilinks, even when I didn't have to. I really wish you would reconsider your position on this.
@Predictor I think your point was a good one, and I'm glad to hear that you paid everyone back. (I didn't know that before.)
But there also needs to be a norm that market creators aren't going to choose to incorrectly resolve one of their markets just to make some point that they believe is important.
@Predictor Why is getting a checkmark such a big deal? It's supposed to just be a symbol for how likely you are resolve markets correctly, and your position is "sure I misresolved a market incorrectly that one time, but..."
There are other accolades/distinctions/etcetera that you can aim for if you're looking for some.
@MichaelWheatley To me it's about being a long time market maker, and seeing other market creators with these tags makes me feel not valued. Then seeing this market and the number of people betting against me completely deflated me.
@Predictor For what it's worth my no bet comes mostly from how likely I think "Trustworthy-ish" is to be around in 30 days time.
@Predictor Remember that people betting NO doesn't mean they believe you shouldn't get the badge, just that you won't, as per the judgement of Austin.
@Predictor The community guidelines apply to everyone on Manifold. Not everyone on Manifold has the trustworthy badge. Therefore there are obviously additional criteria past just following the community guidelines that must apply in order to earn the badge.