Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.
Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.
@Yoav It means they can't create new markets or make comments, but they can still place bets and resolve markets.
"Banned" is definitely not an accurate description of that state. Maybe "muted" would be better.
@IsaacKing Once a user is banned, there is no incentive for them to resolve anything correctly. This user is a loose cannon, I'm liquidating all my major positions.
@IsaacKing Go look at trent’s early markets. Predictor and yazoo seem to be very closely related. Probably the same person.
@ian Interesting theory. Is there anything pointing to that other than Predictor having made many bets in Trent's early markets?
@IsaacKing No additional evidence besides many of trent’s early markets just being transfers of profit from trent to the only trader, predictor.
@IsaacKing You have to scroll down to his early markets like https://manifold.markets/kazoo/am-i-alive-today-5bb0bd635600?r=aWFu
I think @ManifoldMarkets should take over banned users’ markets, or at least resolve all of them N/A.
Trent apparently believes that anything that slightly deviates from extreme far-left science denial is "white supremacy", and that even discussing such topics could be damaging enough to their reputation that they will avoid such discussions. I would not trust them to correctly resolve any market on an emotionally/politically-charged topic.
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/has-scott-alexander-ever-attempted#I6w90jbuiH2pGNYPkYyM