For this question to be resolved as "Yes", it is only necessary that a member of the EU officially notifies the European Council of its intention to leave the EU, following Article 50(2) from the Lisbon Treaty, regardless of how long the actual process of leaving may take.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ654 |
You never prioritized “autonomy”; that’s not even a coherent value.
Require sqrt(num traders) to vote to resolve. >80% consensus is a reversal, >50% is N/A, anything else clears.
Store votes in secret and publish them after. Apply reputation weighting later.
No traders = instant.
Small markets need just a vote or two.
Large markets will get quorum fast.
Do the work!
@Gigacasting Absolutely, now this makes sense. I should have thought of this, thank you!
For context to those who are confused why Predictor intentionally misresolved this market, it is in response to @stone misresolving https://manifold.markets/stone/will-there-be-a-report-button-withi.
This obviously doesn't make what Predictor did here "right", but he is correct that it is currently allowed under our community guidelines which prioritise user autonomy over their markets.
@Predictor we definitely hear you and appreciate you as a user even if we don't think this market was the best way to go about protesting. We are currently discussing the best way to proceed, and if we need to make any changes to the guidelines or functionality of the site to reduce these events happening in the future.
If any of you have an issue with how this market was resolved, I highly suggest you speak up and have your voices heard in this related market. There should be absolutely no reason that an intentionally incorrectly resolved market such as this one should not be reversed. I've probably ruined my reputation on this site forever, I do promise this will be the only market I resolve incorrectly, but I hope it brings about the change that is needed.
@Predictor Are you really salty enough about this to punish a bunch of unrelated bettors and nuke your own reputation?
@AndrewHartman IMO having a single market be resolved incorrectly is not a punishment, I don't know why you would interpret it this way. It is following the guidelines. This is in no way punishing you, I don't see the problem.
@Predictor I had already started selling all the positions that I had on your markets. I do not agree with your way of protesting, and I think it was very damaging to your reputation. But given your prior history and that you are stating that this will be the only market that you will resolve incorrectly, I'll keep betting on your markets. For the people that are mad with you, perhaps you can return their invested money via tips to make it up for them. I'm good because it was only M$20.
@Predictor You can be deliberately obtuse about it, if you like. But if you're annoyed about how the other market was resolved, then you clearly understand precisely why this annoys us.
@AndrewHartman I don't think this nuked Predictor's reputation. Most of it was already destroyed when they got upset was that the manifold team stopped them from crashing the website a second time. /Predictor/will-the-right-arrow-on-this-questi
@Yev Number one, I had no idea that my market was even crashing the website, I have no idea about code or how this website works. Number two, it is the bots that should be blamed, not me. Me sitting here clicking the arrow a few times to the left or the right isn't crashing anything. All you power users are going to be the reason people get turned off from the site because we're just here for insight and fun, and you are just offensive and pretentious.
@Predictor Number one, the first time you created a market like that, you did not resolve it. Either you tried to resolve it but you couldn't because your market's page was down (in which case you are lying now), or you did not even try to resolve it (in which case you are just an untrustworthy market creator).
Number one and a half. The manifold staff told you your market was causing problems when they paused your market. You could've just tweaked your market in a way that excludes bots and only allows intended usage, and then reopened the market. But instead you decided to make a big fuss about it.
Number two, I believe market creators should be responsible for the consequences of their markets. If you create perverse incentives for other traders, that is almost entirely your fault, not theirs.
@Yev I thought the page was down because there was a bug with the site, what do I know why it was down? I couldn't access it, so I couldn't resolve it, it's a buggy site. It never once crossed my mind that I would create a market to break the site on purpose.
When I created the left/right version of the market, I thought it was cute and fun because they had just changed the UI and the arrows went from going up/down to left/right. What the fuck do I know? Then they just intervened and closed my market. They could have told me, "yo, this market is screwing up our website and driving up our costs, can you please close it?" and I would not have had a problem doing it. I don't even know how I could have reopened it to exclude bots? Instead I just N/A'ed it which was the right thing to do. I made a big fuss about it because I'm trying to explain myself from a layman's perspective and you guys are just not getting it. If you're so adamant about arguing about changing how markets are resolved after the fact, then you should also be hands off on closing them.
And again, how is it my fault that I created a market within the guidelines of what the site allows? I do not have bots, I have no fucking clue how to make a bot, I couldn't even tell you what the capabilities of the bots are and what they are capable of doing. So what do you want me to do? Stop harassing me, I don't like it.
Today I have donated my profits from this market to a site I cherish on your behalf. I hope that they can continue to make strides in shining a light on abuses of power and betrayals of public trust, which are issues I hold near and dear to my heart. I hope you all can appreciate this. Much love, Predictor 🔥
@LivInTheLookingGlass Very suspicious that @Predictor bought a massive amount of ‘yes’ shares seconds before resolving the market in his favor..
