Background

• Only the U.S. has the GBU‑57/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator): Israel lacks the capability to penetrate Fordow’s 80-90 m depth.

• MOP capabilities: It can penetrate ~60 m of hard rock before detonating.

• Military planning signals: Analysts say deployment would likely require U.S. authorization and significant operational steps.

Resolution Criteria

"Yes" resolves if the following occurs before Jan 1, 2026:

1. U.S. drops and detonates a GBU‑57/B "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" on the Fordow site (physical impact and explosion).

2. U.S. officials publicly confirm that a MOP strike was carried out against Fordow or Credible evidence emerges - for example, satellite imagery showing crater consistent with MOP impact exactly at Fordow’s location.