In what year will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test"?
21
200Ṁ470
2051
December 22, 2030
25%
2025-2027
44%
2028-2030
12%
2031-2033
8%
2034-2036
4%
2037-2040
4%
2041-2045
3%
2046-2050

Background:

Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple Inc., proposed "The Coffee Test" as a benchmark for evaluating the capabilities of autonomous robots. The test requires a robot to enter an unfamiliar house, find the kitchen, identify the necessary tools and ingredients, and then prepare a cup of coffee. The Coffee Test challenges a robot's ability to navigate unknown environments, recognize objects, manipulate tools and materials, and follow a sequence of tasks to achieve a specific goal. While there have been significant advancements in robotics, no robot has yet passed The Coffee Test.

Resolution criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if a robot is publicly and credibly documented to have:

  1. Successfully entered an unfamiliar residential environment, located the kitchen, and autonomously navigated the space, including:

    a. Identifying and avoiding obstacles.
    b. Adapting to different lighting conditions and surfaces.

  2. Demonstrated the ability to identify and manipulate various kitchen tools, appliances, and ingredients, such as:

    a. Recognizing coffee makers or machines, coffee filters, coffee grinders, and kettles.
    b. Identifying coffee beans or grounds, water sources, and optional items like sugar, milk, or creamer.
    c. Operating appliances and tools, such as turning on the coffee maker, grinding coffee beans, and pouring water.

  3. Exhibited the capability to follow a sequence of tasks to prepare a cup of coffee, including:

    a. Retrieving and preparing the necessary tools, appliances, and ingredients.
    b. Following a logical order of steps to make the coffee.
    c. Adjusting to variations in coffee-making equipment or processes based on the available tools and appliances.

  4. Successfully completed The Coffee Test, resulting in a properly prepared cup of coffee, within a specific time frame not exceeding 20 minutes, which is comparable to an average human performing the same task.

A successful demonstration must be accompanied by:

  1. A publicly accessible report or documentation describing the robot's design, capabilities, and performance during The Coffee Test, including the time taken to complete the test.

  2. Reporting of the findings in one or more peer-reviewed scientific journals or relevant media outlets.

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I really like this test a lot. My only concern with the test (not this market) is that there are many ways to make coffee. I really want to see a robot who isn't only capable of using an automated machine with already ground beans, but one that can identify an Aeropress or simple filters for a pour over and can identify the coffee grinder, or use a French press. Ideally it would notice if there are multiple ways available in a kitchen and ask if applicable which one is preferred or pick the right one when given specific instructions ("make a pour over with Colombian beans") . I hope they'll do multiple tests in multiple homes.

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