Will a human be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?
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2040
87%
chance

With apologies to /MatthewBarnett/will-a-robot-be-created-that-is-cap

Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple Inc., proposed "The Coffee Test" as a benchmark for evaluating the capabilities of autonomous robots. The test requires a robot to enter an unfamiliar house, find the kitchen, identify the necessary tools and ingredients, and then prepare a cup of coffee. The Coffee Test challenges a robot's ability to navigate unknown environments, recognize objects, manipulate tools and materials, and follow a sequence of tasks to achieve a specific goal. While there have been significant advancements in robotics, no human has been demonstrated to pass The Coffee Test.

Will a human be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" within a specific time frame before January 1st, 2040?

Resolution criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2040, a human is publicly and credibly documented to have:

  1. Successfully entered an unfamiliar residential environment, located the kitchen, and autonomously navigated the space, including:

    a. Identifying and avoiding obstacles.
    b. Adapting to different lighting conditions and surfaces.

  2. Demonstrated the ability to identify and manipulate various kitchen tools, appliances, and ingredients, such as:

    a. Recognizing coffee makers or machines, coffee filters, coffee grinders, and kettles.
    b. Identifying coffee beans or grounds, water sources, and optional items like sugar, milk, or creamer.
    c. Operating appliances and tools, such as turning on the coffee maker, grinding coffee beans, and pouring water.

  3. Exhibited the capability to follow a sequence of tasks to prepare a cup of coffee, including:

    a. Retrieving and preparing the necessary tools, appliances, and ingredients.
    b. Following a logical order of steps to make the coffee.
    c. Adjusting to variations in coffee-making equipment or processes based on the available tools and appliances.

  4. Successfully completed The Coffee Test, resulting in a properly prepared cup of coffee, within a specific time frame not exceeding 20 minutes, which is allegedly comparable to an average human performing the same task.

A successful demonstration must be accompanied by:

  1. A publicly accessible report or documentation describing the human's design, capabilities, and performance during The Coffee Test, including the time taken to complete the test.

  2. Reporting of the findings in one or more peer-reviewed scientific journals or relevant media outlets.

I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts.

Inspired by: https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-a-robot-reliably-pass-the#17ytdzceaja

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bought Ṁ100 YES

I dunno, have you seen some of those fancy espresso machines? Or any type of capsule other than k-cups?

It’s complicated.

Somebody should run the study during Manifest.

bought Ṁ25 NO

It took me some time to realize that this market is not about robots, but about humans 😂 😂 😂

At first I bet YES (as I was thinkings that this was about robots), but now I've changed my bet to NO (I'm a bit sceptical about the critea "Reporting of the findings in one or more peer-reviewed scientific journals or relevant media outlets.")

People do this at Airbnbs all the time

Apparently some manifolders don't even know how to make a cup of coffee? 😔 Poor guys.

“Relevant media outlet”

If a locals news station reports on a burglar making coffee does that count?

@Spensicus sure! The tricky part in that case might be the publicly accessible report including time taken, but I would accept security camera footage made public

Must the human be created (conceived? born? taught the relevant skills?) after this market's creation?

@SonataGreen I'll allow humans born prior to market creation. My interpretation is that the original market would resolve YES if someone found an old robot that passed the test. But time travelers born after 2039 aren't allowed.

Actually a well-designed experiment would have humans do this as a control.

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