Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of August?
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predicted NO

Resolves NO @YaakovSaxon

A tropical depression expected to make landfall in Texas at 7am local time, Boca Chica is in the warning zone. Quoting /u/santacfan on reddit:

Landfall expected around 7am tomorrow

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 89.9 West. The system is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast motion to the west is expected to continue, and the system is forecast to move inland over south Texas early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast.

Satellite images indicate that the system is becoming better organized and it is expected to become a tropical depression later today.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

  • Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Less a matter of SpaceX technical readiness and more of an FAA regulatory issue.

predicted YES

@Rachell embedded paywall haha

predicted NO

@Blomfilter whoops, apologies! I have an automatic paywall bypass browser extension so it works for me.

Feel like for the sake of my leagues ranking I need to make the case for NO.

As linked below, in late May Musk said there'd be a month of pad upgrades, followed by a month of vehicle testing on the pad, before launch.

That timeline has been exceeded already - pad upgrades are not yet complete.

In late June Musk said 6 weeks to complete pad and vehicle upgrades (since they're retrofitting the vehicle for hot staging). That puts us at early August before our supposed one-month of on-pad testing begins.

That puts launch NET early September, if we assume the latest timelines are accurate estimates which they never are.

@chrisjbillington So, september 6th? 😉

predicted NO

@ICRainbow That had not occurred to me! You may very well be onto something.

predicted NO

@ICRainbow Thanks for the idea

I just realized I'm betting on the wrong market lmao

@WieDan I was wondering what's going on because I was betting it up based on the same news you posted :D

predicted NO

@NamesAreHard I wanted to bet on the market that said before august lol

predicted NO

@WieDan Well Musk often fails his own deadlines so I'm not going to sell on a loss.