The question here is whether the next launch will be substantially delayed by regulatory agencies (eg FAA license) past when they otherwise would have been ready to fly.

This could be a bit of a judgement call (at least, without having an insider at SpaceX and the FAA). If anyone has a suggestion in the comments for more precise resolution criteria, I'm open to hearing it.

I also reserve the option of resolving this one to market if the market price seems reasonable and not manipulated.

Because it is a judgement call I will not trade in this market.