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MANIFOLD
Which extinct species will be brought back to life by 2037?
40
Ṁ1.4kṀ3.9k
2036
85%
Any of clade Dinosauria (dinosaurs)
82%
Pyrenean ibex
80%
Mammoth
68%
Dire Wolf
66%
Dodo
63%
Passenger Pigeon
57%
Thylacine (Tasmanian tiger)
50%
Moa
38%
Auroch
29%
Steller's sea cow
5%
Any species extinct more than 65 million years ago

Add your own 🦊!

WHAT COUNTS:

Revived animal must be mostly healthy, be able to walk around and eat. If it's a hybrid with living species, it should also be fertile so that genetic similarity can be brought higher with future generations.

Efforts such as the Quagga Project that use selective breeding to produce animals similar in appearance but not based on original genetic material won't count for this question.

If it will turn out that an animal is not in fact extinct, that option will resolve N/A.

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State of play per answer, against the description's fertile-and-original-material rule. Dire wolf: three edited grey wolves (20 edits in 14 genes) born October 2024 and January 2025, but they carry no dire-wolf DNA, only edits chosen from it, so the original-material clause is the question. Mammoth: late-2028 target for an edited Asian elephant calf, which needs a pregnancy by early 2027 given 22 months of gestation; nothing announced yet. Pyrenean ibex: cloned once, in 2003, from the last female's frozen cells, lived minutes; nobody is retrying. Thylacine: the lead lab projects a proxy by the mid-2030s. Dodo and passenger pigeon: the bird route runs through primordial germ cells, first cultured for pigeons in 2025, on a five-to-seven-year path. Aurochs: back-breeding only, which the description excludes. Steller's sea cow: no programme. Dinosaurs and anything extinct more than 65 million years ago: DNA has a half-life of about 521 years in bone (Allentoft et al. 2012) and the oldest sequenced DNA is about two million years old, from Greenland permafrost (Kjaer et al., Nature 2022), so there is nothing to work from and 85% on that answer is a joke bet, if an enjoyable one. By 2037 the honest ranking is mammoth proxy, then dire wolf if the resolver is lenient, then nothing.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@BoydKane I think this probably shouldn't resolve yes (yet at least).

It appears that it's just a wolf with a couple aesthetic traits of dire wolves, rather than a meaningfully restored Dire Wolf. Feel free to check out the reporting on this (or this week's manifold newsletter, which will discuss this in detail).

The clade dimosauria by definition includes Aves, which the dodo, passenger pigeon are a part of. Very undervalued.

sold Ṁ4 YES

That said the clade dimosauria is not extinct so maybe should go NA 😂

@nikstar Can you chime in on resolution criteria here?

@VanessaKosoy Looks like I can’t NA answers anymore so we’ll treat this one literally. Birds are dinosaurs so resurrecting any extinct bird will count as YES.

I wonder what @Naten8 meant originally :)

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 5% order

I've gone and added an option for anything extinct more than 65mya to account for what OP probably meant by dinosaur while allowing the non dinosaurs that people often confuse with them in too (pterosaurs, plesiosaurs, dimetrodon) because why not! It is at the cost of including uncharismatic lizards, small mammals and fish along with T-Rex.

The half-life of DNA makes it impossible as far as we know, but then again, my dinosaur books as a kid said we'd never know what colour they were, so anything is possible!

bought Ṁ10 NO

mammoth genomes are already probably too degraded to work

@JonathanRay Haven't we done full-genome sequences for Neanderthals?