The project's own timeline runs past this market. Andrew Pask, whose TIGRR Lab at Melbourne is Colossal's partner on the thylacine, projects the first functional proxy by the mid-2030s. As of April 2026 the reconstructed genome is estimated at 99.9% complete with 45 remaining gaps, over 300 edits targeting thylacine-specific craniofacial regions have been made in a fat-tailed dunnart cell line, and marsupial embryos have been cultured in an artificial uterus device for more than half of gestation, which still leaves the second half and the surrogate problem, since the dunnart is mouse-sized. This market needs more than one animal: a breeding pair of something thylacine-ish before 2033, so two proxies that can reproduce, which on the lab's own schedule means the first births by about 2030 and sexual maturity after. 26% is generous for that, and most of it is the chance that thylacine-ish gets read loosely, the way the dire wolves (grey wolves with 20 edits in 14 genes) were read in 2025.

here's a related market for betting on specific woolly mammoth project milestones: /ASomewhatRudeParakeet/what-will-happen-during-the-woolly

Requiring a breeding pair makes this a lot harder

@jonsimon maybe, but one of the stated goals of the project is reintroduction in the wild. I feel if it was not breeding then that would not really work.

@Odoacre oh sure, they talk about releasing hundreds of them, certainly at least one breeding pair will be required. I just meant it substantially changes the likelihood that it will actually happen.