This market resolves to YES if, before 2040, someone brings back a dinosaur. Minor genetic modifications are allowed as long as it's clearly a prehistoric dinosaur and not a completely new kind of animal. The dinosaur does not need to reach maturity, but it must survive for at least a day without life support equipment.
Birds do not count.
The DNA needs to be similar enough that biologists would classify it genetically as a dinosaur. It doesn't need to be an exact clone of an original dinosaur's DNA; it could also be some sort of reconstruction that gets close. But it can't be, say, a silicon-based life form that looks and behaves exactly like a T-rex.
@IsaacKing I am more thinking what if we take existing avian genomes, make edits to it until we get a Tyrannosaur phenotype, but there's no ground truth available for whether this is close to an actual Tyrannosaur genome. Or, more generally: is there any way for this to resolve YES without us recovering a mostly-intact dinosaur genome?