This market resolves to YES if, before 2040, someone brings back a dinosaur.
It does not have to have exactly the DNA of a prehistoric dinosaur, but it must be close enough that biologists and paleontologists would agree it's a "real dinosaur", not a completely new kind of animal that just looks similar to dinosaurs. (And no, it can't just be a bird.) Modifying a bird genome can count, as long as the resulting animal not only looks like a dinosaur, but also acts like one, can breed new ones, etc.
The dinosaur does not need to reach maturity, but it must survive for at least a day without life support equipment.
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(And no, it can't just be a bird.)
By what definition of bird? Neornithes (the most recent common ancestor of all currently living birds and all its descendants)? Avialae (all dinosaurs with feathered wings capable of powered flight and descendants thereof)? Something in between?
The DNA needs to be similar enough that biologists would classify it genetically as a dinosaur. It doesn't need to be an exact clone of an original dinosaur's DNA; it could also be some sort of reconstruction that gets close. But it can't be, say, a silicon-based life form that looks and behaves exactly like a T-rex.
@IsaacKing I am more thinking what if we take existing avian genomes, make edits to it until we get a Tyrannosaur phenotype, but there's no ground truth available for whether this is close to an actual Tyrannosaur genome. Or, more generally: is there any way for this to resolve YES without us recovering a mostly-intact dinosaur genome?