Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, the civil war in Myanmar is officially declared or widely recognized as ended. The end of the conflict must satisfy at least one of the following conditions:

1. Comprehensive Peace Agreement: A formal, nationwide peace agreement, political settlement, or permanent ceasefire is signed between the central ruling authority of Myanmar (the military-led State Administration Council (SAC) or its successor) and the primary armed opposition groups (including the National Unity Government (NUG) and key coalitions like the Three Brotherhood Alliance or its constituent Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs)). The agreement must be officially announced and remain actively in effect on December 31, 2027. Localized, temporary, or fragmented bilateral truces do not qualify.

2. Decisive Military Victory or Regime Overthrow: The military junta is completely overthrown, surrenders, or is dissolved, with the NUG or a successor coalition establishing governing control over the vast majority of the country (including Naypyidaw), as recognized by the United Nations or widely reported by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP News, or BBC). Conversely, if the military junta decisively defeats the primary national opposition forces (NUG/PDF) and forces a comprehensive surrender, dismantling the main armed resistance, this will also resolve the market as YES.

3. UCDP Coding of Conflict Termination: The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) officially codes the primary "Myanmar (Burma): Government" conflict dyad (or the post-2021 civil war episode) as "terminated" or ended by December 31, 2027.

If none of these conditions are met, and the state of active civil war continues with ongoing major hostilities, insurgencies, or stalemate, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

Following the February 2021 military coup that ousted Myanmar's democratically elected government, the country descended into a complex and bloody civil war. The military junta, known as the State Administration Council (SAC), faces coordinated armed resistance from the People's Defense Forces (PDFs) allied with the National Unity Government (NUG), as well as long-established Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs).

By mid-2026, the conflict remains largely stalemated. Though opposition forces have captured significant territory and several regional military commands, the military continues to control major population centers and has launched brutal aerial campaigns and counter-offensives. Attempts at regional peace initiatives, including those mediated by ASEAN, have struggled to gain traction, and temporary bilateral ceasefires brokered under foreign pressure (chiefly from China) have failed to translate into a comprehensive, national resolution to the war.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.