Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if both OpenAI AND xAI complete initial public offerings (IPOs) and begin trading on a major U.S. stock exchange (NYSE or Nasdaq) on or before December 31, 2026. Resolution is based on official SEC filings and exchange announcements. The market resolves NO if either company fails to complete an IPO by the deadline.

Background

OpenAI was reportedly planning an IPO of up to $1 trillion as early as late 2026, though OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar said last month that a listing is "not in the near-term plan." OpenAI has been in early discussions with top law firms, including Cooley, about a potential public listing, and at least some capital could come via an initial public offering it is reportedly planning for as soon as the second half of 2026.

For xAI, two xAI investors said a listing could occur as soon as late 2026 or the first half of 2027, though they acknowledged the timing is uncertain. xAI CEO Linda Yaccarino emphasized that it is still too early to discuss a timeline for an IPO, as xAI is only two years old.

Considerations

Both companies face structural headwinds. OpenAI's IPO documents revealed it was losing a dollar for nearly every dollar it recorded in sales, was burning through cash at a rapid rate, and had billions of dollars in future commitments. Musk has clashed with regulators in the past and tends to favor the privacy of private capital markets — factors that may delay any IPO. Investors also noted that Musk's polarizing reputation could be a liability in public markets. Additionally, plans could still change if major political or economic problems arise.

• Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Merger/Acquisition Scenario: If SpaceX and xAI merge:

  • Market resolves YES if the merged entity continues xAI's operations substantially and IPOs, AND OpenAI also IPOs

  • Market resolves NO if SpaceX shuts down xAI operations or systematically changes what xAI does